throwaway237683

> even more people would have died if we didn't take costly measures to stop it.

The example of Sweden seems to disagree with this assumption. They never locked down, and the current mortality is (1,203 / 10,330,000) * 100 = 0.0116%

First case on Jan 31st, no lockdowns, death rate has already flattened. Where is that crazy scary exponential growth?

Wikipedia says 1,200 deaths so far in Sweden. Sure that might be ten times more than in Finland and Norway but given the dire predictions of two months ago, and even more dire predictions of a month ago, you'd expect this number to be ten times higher than it is now, or a hundred times. What about exponential growth and stuff? In a country with no lockdowns this disease should go rampant, right?

1,200 people dead of 10.3 mln is 0.012% of the populace. Not good but not scary either, for the Worst Pandemic Of Our Lifetime.

> That's 0.03%, and it's not typical. Often, the number is much lower.

0.03% or 0.1% or 0.66%, the number is low enough to be perceived as not too dangerous by general populace. Contrast that with 13% mortality rate for Italy that was widely spun a month ago. Now _that_ was scary!

> I think again you are misunderstanding some severe things.

No doubt that I am misunderstanding some things. A lot of things, more likely. Severe? That depends.

If you look at the numbers, they never did fit in the narrative pushed on us. Yes this virus is not just like flu, it is way more dangerous for specific cohorts of at-risk people. Key here is: for specific cohorts. Not for everybody. Why is everybody's life being crippled right now to save the few? Why cannot we quarantine people at risk instead of everybody? There is a wide spectrum of possible options between doing nothing and keeping everybody under house arrest.

Have you ever been laid off in the middle of an economic collapse? I still have my job but I don't think I'm going to keep it for long. And when the day comes I'll have to choose between paying ~$2,500 a month to keep my existing health insurance coverage in the middle of a pandemic, or keeping food on the table. No social healthcare here.

No, it's not about numbers looking good while we're enjoying our stay at home. It's about trying to weigh the risks and being rational instead of "saving lives at all costs". The costs are already staggering beyond belief.

In mid-March we were told that we are "10 days behind Italy" and shelter-in-place is not to stop the spread (already too late for that), but to give hospitals a bit of a breather before the surge of critical cases and the Death Wave that follows. That was the justification for such extraordinary measures as a state-wide lockdown.

It's mid-April now. Where is the Death Wave? Either this virus is much less infectuous than it was touted, or much less deadly. Or both.

Sweden never locked down. Denmark is opening up after a lockdown. Italy that was touted as the prime example of hell on earth, had ~21,000 people died by official count. Even if it was undercounted by 50%, that's roughly 40,000 people, mostly elders on their last breath, out of country of 60 mln. And that's the worst case so far, in the world of 7 billion people.

Disregard all that, we're still being told daily that it's "war zone", the zombie apocalypse is just around the corner, etc. Only Big Brother like surveillance is going to save us. The lockdown is not an extraordinary measure anymore, it was an absolutely necessary first step, and now we have to take it further. Much further.

I wonder what it felt like for people in 1932 Germany.

Because it does not make sense to introduce delays to stiffle discussion. Throw-away accounts are used to say things one does not want associated with "main" account; in my case the "main" account is easily doxxable and I knew the things I wanted to say are not going to be popular. I don't care if site mods have access to the logs and can use IP address to add 2 and 2; I just don't want that post above to be associated with my real name forever, via simple google search. I'll have to look for a new job soon, if layoffs continue at the present pace.

I would be happy to have this discussion face to face without having to hide behind an anonymous account but the rules for in-person debates do not apply on the Internet forums.

This is what the current plan says. Once implemented, the implementation can always be tweaked. In fact it can be tweaked in the next deploy coming a minute after the first.

Do you _really_ trust Apple and Google? I'm sorry but I don't.

Not sure if it is folly for me to try and answer here (no idea if my reply is going to be visible). Thank you for trying to listen anyway.

There is no need to look for malice when there are simpler explanations. No, I do not think Newsom and Cuomo were actively trying to hurt their states' economies; what I said is that they are using the present crisis to advance their political goals _disregarding_ economic fallout. And you are telling it exactly: they are already seen as "taking charge of the situation" while the federal government was "doing nothing". I've seen Newsom being called the savior of the state (nation is the next step, yes) in press and here on HN. Contrast that with what WA state governor was/is doing - I don't even know his name!

I wouldn't try to make projections regarding chances for winning elections; something tells me though that severe unemployment and budget shortfalls are going to be blamed on someone else like federal government failing to provide relief, etc etc. There are all kinds of ways to spin the situation, I would leave that to professionals. There is going to be plenty of them hurting for work.

I live in California, in a smaller rural community way outside Bay Area. It hurts looking at the devastation this lockdown causes: boarded restaurant windows, closed businesses. It hurts listening to the local pediatrics calling us twice a day begging to schedule a virtual check-up "appointment" for kids basically so that they could bill our insurance and get paid _something_. It hurts when I stop by a grocery store and register clerk is happy just to see someone shopping so he could keep his job a little longer. I still have my cushy IT job but I don't have many illusions about keeping it for long if this goes on.

And all this carnage is for what? The latest numbers on Wikipedia state 128,000 deaths worldwide; you know, that's not very impressive for a zombie apocalypse. 760 people died in California so far. In mid-March we were told that California is 10 days behind Italy, and it's going to be hell in here soon. A month later, where is it?

Now take this "roadmap" that Newsom published yesterday. Literally the first bullet point talks about total Big Brother style tracing and monitoring as _necessity_ to even _think_ about lifting restrictions. You sincerely want me to believe all this is done for the sake of us plebe Joes?

Isn't it amazing that an absolutely massive privacy invasion that is called contact tracing is already accepted as _inevitable_ if we are ever to be allowed to step out of our homes?

Talk about cynicism.