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Re:SoftBank expects $24B in losses from Vision Fund, WeWork ... by Animats on Tuesday April 14, 2020 @04:20PM (#22870970)
Wag. Booking for dog walkers. Why did that ever get funded at a high level? $300 million in funding?
Re:SoftBank expects $24B in losses from Vision Fund, WeWork ... by shalmanese on Wednesday April 15, 2020 @01:18PM (#22880378)
Wag makes sense. There's a thesis that we've entered into an environment where the sole determination of customer acquisition success is the amount of money you have to burn and the sole determination of the success of a marketplace is acquiring more customers faster than your competitors.

Thus, there exists a winning strategy where you bully everyone else out of the market simply by having deeper pockets and a willingness to eat more pain than anyone else.

What you need to do to demonstrate credible commitment to this plan which involves splashing out way more than is reasonable for any marketplace business so that nobody else even bothers competing with you anymore. Once you've established your top dog post, you can just rake in the disproportionate profits until the end of time.

It's a high risk, high reward strategy but not one intrinsically unreasonable from the outset.

Re:SoftBank expects $24B in losses from Vision Fund, WeWork ... by oh_sigh on Tuesday April 14, 2020 @05:20PM (#22871595)
What does 10% off the top of the informal dog walking economy look like?
Re:SoftBank expects $24B in losses from Vision Fund, WeWork ... by Spivak on Tuesday April 14, 2020 @06:25PM (#22872241)
I mean this kind of "tech" really only has one trick: demand stimulation. Don't get me wrong it's a good trick. Facebook and Google are making a killing by doing it.

The idea is just to prove that latent demand for dog walking exists and what's holding it back is the fact that people who would pay for this service don't know how to find someone to do it. Not the craziest idea. There's plenty of stuff that I would gladly pay for if I had any idea how to find someone selling it.

Re:SoftBank expects $24B in losses from Vision Fund, WeWork ... by variaga on Tuesday April 14, 2020 @07:10PM (#22872583)
Let's say the latent demand is there - once I've found a dog walker through Wag, why wouldn't the walker and I cut out Wag and spilt that 10% between the two of us?
Re:SoftBank expects $24B in losses from Vision Fund, WeWork ... by valzam on Tuesday April 14, 2020 @07:32PM (#22872733)
Nothing, which is the problem with all of these uber-for-x platforms. For anything that happens on a regular schedule the intermediary will be squeezed out rather sooner than later.
Re:SoftBank expects $24B in losses from Vision Fund, WeWork ... by yellow_postit on Wednesday April 15, 2020 @01:32AM (#22874844)
Yup every contact we have made through HomeAdvisor, Porch, etc just leaves us their details and a cheaper rate. Churn+New users is clearly non-zero but seems smaller than the valuations suggest.
Re:SoftBank expects $24B in losses from Vision Fund, WeWork ... by vikramkr on Tuesday April 14, 2020 @06:02PM (#22872043)
in return for what? I'd also like to take 10% off the top of some industry - let's say off of lawn mowing. Cool, so now invest 300 million dollars into my lawnmowing app. What value is it providing? what's going to justify that 10% of the lawnmower market? I've got to go and create a few billion more dollars in value before I can skim off some of it and justify a 300 million dollar investment. I've got to grow the lawnmower market by 11% or create 11% more value before the players in the space would find it worth it to give me 10% of it. I don't know if it was clear how a dog walking startup was going to do that.
Re:SoftBank expects $24B in losses from Vision Fund, WeWork ... by adrr on Tuesday April 14, 2020 @07:40PM (#22872793)
Reducing the friction of finding a lawn care company to maintain your lawn for the customer and for the lawn care company, reducing the friction of finding customers. 1-800-dentist is a good example in a non-technology driven scenario. They paired potential patients with dentists for a slice of the pie. There are whole industries that just connect customers with people selling things like real estate.

Lawn mowing tech company's competitor is really other adverting platforms and mediums that lawn care companies use to acquire customers. Thats the pie they are eating. 1-800 dentists biggest competitor was the yellow pages in the phonebook.

Re:SoftBank expects $24B in losses from Vision Fund, WeWork ... by aguyfromnb on Tuesday April 14, 2020 @08:10PM (#22872991)
>Reducing the friction of finding a lawn care company to maintain your lawn for the customer and for the lawn care company

What's the ongoing value? You find a lawn-mower or dog-walker you like, and cut out the middleman by paying them directly. Everyone wins (except your startup).

Re:SoftBank expects $24B in losses from Vision Fund, WeWork ... by chii on Wednesday April 15, 2020 @03:09AM (#22875320)
> You find a lawn-mower or dog-walker you like, and cut out the middleman by paying them directly

and how do you know someone else is willing to walk/mow for cheaper once you start paying them directly? How do you solve disputes, like no-shows, and payment legislations (like GST/VAT etc)?

The platform reduces friction - that's not false. Whether the platform is worth it to reduce that friction is another matter. Esp. for low cost things like dog walking. The value generated by reducing friction must be big enough, relative to the cost of the thing.

Re:SoftBank expects $24B in losses from Vision Fund, WeWork ... by vel0city on Wednesday April 15, 2020 @12:07AM (#22874391)
What's the ongoing value of a site like Monster or Indeed? Or a cleaning service? There could be some amount of turn-over in these markets, or it could be something where almost all participants in the market only form long relationships. If there's high turnover, there's a decent market to be made being the matchmaker. Maybe not a >$300M market to be made, but there's probably some value in it.
Re:SoftBank expects $24B in losses from Vision Fund, WeWork ... by TeMPOraL on Wednesday April 15, 2020 @08:11AM (#22876778)
> What's the ongoing value of a site like Monster or Indeed?

They facilitate one-off transactions.

> Or a cleaning service?

It's a B2B version of hiring a cleaner, that's less risky and that has a feature useful for the hiring company in that the transaction is legal.

Neither of these are similar to recurring individual-to-individual services that may or may not be above board wrt. the IRS.

Re:SoftBank expects $24B in losses from Vision Fund, WeWork ... by petra on Wednesday April 15, 2020 @10:33AM (#22878161)
//What's the ongoing value? You find a lawn-mower or dog-walker you like, and cut out the middleman by paying them directly.

There are contracts involved.More than 50% of people prefer not to mess with that stuff. That's a big market.

Re:SoftBank expects $24B in losses from Vision Fund, WeWork ... by catalogia on Wednesday April 15, 2020 @04:05PM (#22882374)
Contracts... for dog walking? Here is the contract: "I give you a $20 bill and you walk the dog, deal? Let's shake on it."

That's how it worked for dog walking and lawn work when I was doing it as a teenager. No lawyers, no paperwork, no signatures, nothing needed to get notarized. No bullshit. KISS principle in action.

Re:SoftBank expects $24B in losses from Vision Fund, WeWork ... by cruano on Wednesday April 15, 2020 @06:54PM (#22884115)
I think he means an "If you do a side-deal we kick you off our platform" type of thing, referring to cutting out the middle man
Re:SoftBank expects $24B in losses from Vision Fund, WeWork ... by Psyonic on Wednesday April 15, 2020 @10:25AM (#22878061)
Re:SoftBank expects $24B in losses from Vision Fund, WeWork ... by dmix on Tuesday April 14, 2020 @05:22PM (#22871620)
May I draw you a upward line on a chart?