News for hackers. Stuff that matters.
Re:Epidemiologist: Social Distancing Guarantees Second Wave ... by giardini on Thursday April 09, 2020 @11:54PM (#22829848)
mullingitover says>" he's basically advocating for the rejected "herd immunity by infecting everyone at once" [a] strategy that would've killed _millions_."<

"Herd immunity" is not "rejected". For example, the Dutch and the Swedes have chosen to use it against Covid-19..

Furthermore, the total number of Covid-19 _cases_ in the USA is less than a million! to claim that the herd immunity strategy would have "killed millions" is nonsense. Deaths in USA due to Covid-19 are < 17,000 as of today, April 9, 2020.

Re:Epidemiologist: Social Distancing Guarantees Second Wave ... by mullingitover on Friday April 10, 2020 @03:43PM (#22836644)
> For example, the Dutch and the Swedes have chosen to use it against Covid-19..

Let's check in with Sweden. Currently their graph is not looking great[1].

They're faring worse than their neighbors, and the government is scrambling to get a lockdown going[2].

> As of April 9, Sweden’s rate per capita of confirmed deaths from the coronavirus is higher than the rate of its fellow Scandinavian countries or the US. Hospitals are overcrowded and staff members are overworked, and the military has begun setting up field hospitals in major cities, including Stockholm, the country’s capital and the epicenter of its outbreak. The government is now seeking extraordinary powers to impose further restrictions.

Meanwhile in the Netherlands, they're extending their very real lockdown into June[3].

[1] https://mackuba.eu/corona/#sweden

[2] https://www.vox.com/2020/4/9/21213472/coronavirus-sweden-her...

[3] https://www.nst.com.my/world/world/2020/03/577616/covid-19-n...

Re:Epidemiologist: Social Distancing Guarantees Second Wave ... by himlion on Friday April 10, 2020 @02:55AM (#22830623)
Not true, the Dutch have been on quasi lockdown for the last 4 weeks.
Re:Epidemiologist: Social Distancing Guarantees Second Wave ... by giardini on Monday April 13, 2020 @11:36PM (#22862537)
Well, it _is_ true, they did and it was official:

"Dutch embrace 'herd immunity' as dire death warning prompts UK to change course"

https://pjmedia.com/trending/dutch-pm-announces-he-opts-for-...

Re:Epidemiologist: Social Distancing Guarantees Second Wave ... by himlion on Friday April 17, 2020 @03:46AM (#22897034)
It was a gaffe from the PM and quickly retracted, see for example: https://www.dutchnews.nl/news/2020/03/mps-back-ministers-on-...
Re:Epidemiologist: Social Distancing Guarantees Second Wave ... by microtherion on Friday April 10, 2020 @05:41PM (#22837633)
> the total number of Covid-19 _cases_ in the USA is less than a million

But herd immunity only kicks in if a large percentage of the population (The author mentions 80%, so 240m people in the US) is infected. And he wants those 80% to be infected within 4 weeks.

Wittkowski published a paper on March 31 https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.28.20036715v... in which he predicted:

> As the curve of new cases is flattening in the U.S. at about 20,000 per day [...] the number of deaths is stabilizing at about 400/d [...]. With an expected total of less than 10,000 deaths, [...]

A look at the actual numbers (WITH mitigation strategies) demonstrates that his model is wildly wrong.

Re:Epidemiologist: Social Distancing Guarantees Second Wave ... by pinkfoot on Friday April 10, 2020 @03:16AM (#22830727)
How is exponential growth in a population of 300 million nonsense?

If you take the requisite counter-measures to stop the exponential growth, why are you upset when it does actually work?

Odd