Re:Epidemiologist: Social Distancing Guarantees Second Wave ...
by microtherion on Friday April 10, 2020 @05:41PM
(#22837633)
> the total number of Covid-19 _cases_ in the USA is less than a million
But herd immunity only kicks in if a large percentage of the population (The author mentions 80%, so 240m people in the US) is infected. And he wants those 80% to be infected within 4 weeks.
> As the curve of new cases is flattening in the U.S. at about 20,000 per day [...] the number of deaths is stabilizing at about 400/d [...]. With an expected total of less than 10,000 deaths, [...]
A look at the actual numbers (WITH mitigation strategies) demonstrates that his model is wildly wrong.
But herd immunity only kicks in if a large percentage of the population (The author mentions 80%, so 240m people in the US) is infected. And he wants those 80% to be infected within 4 weeks.
Wittkowski published a paper on March 31 https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.28.20036715v... in which he predicted:
> As the curve of new cases is flattening in the U.S. at about 20,000 per day [...] the number of deaths is stabilizing at about 400/d [...]. With an expected total of less than 10,000 deaths, [...]
A look at the actual numbers (WITH mitigation strategies) demonstrates that his model is wildly wrong.