It's still too early to tell, but SF Bay area, California may have gotten a break (vs a NYc/Italy level surge) from having gone shelter-in-place early.

https://brokeassstuart.com/2020/03/30/bay-area-curve-stays-f...

Hotter temperatures do not guarantee the cessation of all possible transmission of SARS-CoV-2, it impedes it in relation to the increase in temperature (and also ideally humidity, particularly indoors). It helps make everything else you might do for slowing the spread more effective and easier. There is very strong evidence at this point that SARS-Cov-2 is susceptible to the same seasonality factors as influenza. We're seeing this demonstrated all around the world simultaneously in warmer climates, from Mexico to sub Sahara Africa to hotter countries in Asia. It's why none of the major cities in Latin America are seeing the kind of infection rates as NYC or Milan (or as Wuhan previously did). It's why sub Sahara Africa isn't getting hammered (despite plenty of international traffic and trade, including previously from China, that should have massively spread it). It's why India still isn't seeing a massive explosion in cases, as has been feared since the beginning of the outbreak in China.

Check out: Mobile & Birmingham & Montgomery Alabama, the Western handle of Florida, Jackson Mississippi, look at other cities in Louisiana that didn't hold Mardi Gras (and one assumes those cities still got a burst of their cases from the Mardi Gras spread event).

Latin America is not testing people Nearly enough. That’s the main reason for low counts.

In my country, it is only possible to be tested if you say you were in direct contact with the current 4 confirmed cases (1 deceased), and they would have to confirm that too.

Yes, I understand the reason for the low counts. As I keep repeating, you want to pay attention to the flooding of hospitals with Covid patients, that you can't hide (unless you're very authoritarian with strict media control).

These places are not buried in dead people either. Their intensive care systems are not being flooded. Their hospitals are not being flooded by a million cases.

Mexico is not seeing what NY and other high-infection climates have. Given the poverty, poor healthcare system, poorly prepared healthcare system, high traffic and trade with the US via NAFTA and in general, it should have an enormous number of cases by now, and as a consequence a large number of daily deaths and intensive care cases hammering their healthcare systems in every major city. None of that is happening. It's not happening for the same reason it's not happening in Texas.

From everything I've read about COVID-19 and flu-like infections, I'm also inclined to believe that warmer climates help slow COVID-19 outbreaks. It is (in my opinion) the most plausible explanation why certain regions are hit so much worse than others thus far. I also believe a paper I recently read supports this hypothesis.

I've seen the media publish articles with titles like "coronavirus myths busted: warm weather stops the virus". Ironically, these attempts to combat misinformation are dubious themselves, as the truth is probably somewhere in the middle; that is, warm climates may not outright stop COVID-19, but they may certainly hinder it. The fact is, while we can't make definitive statements at the moment due to limited data and understanding of the virus's pathology, we can make educated guesses through observation.

Another contentious point (particularly here in Australia) is the sentiment that children are mostly immune to the virus. The Aus government is pushing this line very strongly as an excuse to keep schools open (i.e. economical reasons).

So yeah, I don't know why I wrote this comment. Probably to stress the fine line that exists between having a mindset which is open to observational theories, while also being critical of "facts" which are pushed to drive political agendas amidst the coronavirus outbreak.