News for hackers. Stuff that matters.
Re:Back-of-the-envelope estimates of next quarter’s unemploy... by chrisseaton on Monday March 30, 2020 @07:37PM (#22733281)
> if there's a pandemic you wear a mask - everywhere all the time

I thought the expert advice from the WHO is to not wear a mask?

> There is no specific evidence to suggest that the wearing of masks by the mass population has any potential benefit. In fact, there's some evidence to suggest the opposite in the misuse of wearing a mask properly or fitting it properly.

Do you know better than the WHO?

Re:Back-of-the-envelope estimates of next quarter’s unemploy... by dilap on Monday March 30, 2020 @07:45PM (#22733363)
Yes, it's absolutely essential in these uncertain times that we do not allow ourselves to be led astray by our own best judgement or common sense, but instead rely upon the expert guidance of organizations such as the WHO.

https://mobile.twitter.com/WHO/status/1217043229427761152

Re:Back-of-the-envelope estimates of next quarter’s unemploy... by gherig4 on Monday March 30, 2020 @07:50PM (#22733413)
You beat me to it. Regardless of how much you believe arguments from authority, The WHO has lost its place as an authority after their recent actions.
Re:Back-of-the-envelope estimates of next quarter’s unemploy... by na85 on Monday March 30, 2020 @07:49PM (#22733410)
I mean they explicitly stated that it's preliminary.
Re:Back-of-the-envelope estimates of next quarter’s unemploy... by chrisseaton on Monday March 30, 2020 @07:55PM (#22733472)
Maybe that’s what the data supported at the time?

Shouldn’t we be going with data rather than ‘common sense’?

Re:Back-of-the-envelope estimates of next quarter’s unemploy... by AnthonyMouse on Monday March 30, 2020 @08:03PM (#22733529)
Sometimes you have the luxury of multiple trustworthy parties having already each done a large sample size peer reviewed double blind study on just the question you want to know the answer to and have all come to the same conclusion.

Other times that hasn't happened yet and you still need to make a decision about what to do today, not after six months of further study.

Re:Back-of-the-envelope estimates of next quarter’s unemploy... by dilap on Monday March 30, 2020 @10:30PM (#22734435)
You should apply your best judgement given all data available. Take neither common-sense nor study results as gospel.
Re:Back-of-the-envelope estimates of next quarter’s unemploy... by davidajackson on Monday March 30, 2020 @07:48PM (#22733388)
> I thought the expert advice from the WHO is to not wear a mask?

IIRC the CDC recommended against early on, I don't know about WHO or where CDC stands on it now. But interviews like:

https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/03/not-wearing-masks-pr...

from other experts give reasons why it is effective:

Q: What mistakes are other countries making?

A: The big mistake in the U.S. and Europe, in my opinion, is that people aren’t wearing masks. This virus is transmitted by droplets and close contact. Droplets play a very important role—you’ve got to wear a mask, because when you speak, there are always droplets coming out of your mouth. Many people have asymptomatic or presymptomatic infections. If they are wearing face masks, it can prevent droplets that carry the virus from escaping and infecting others."

// end of interview comment.

Could it be that CDC knew knew masks worked, but didn't want people to stockpile them? Or could it be that most people won't wear them effectively? No idea which, or both.

I believe the right thing to do is to ramp up mask production and try to get a very small number per capita (after healthcare workers have sufficient) to the sick and general population, especially around areas like NYC. Then educate people on how to wear them.

Re:Back-of-the-envelope estimates of next quarter’s unemploy... by echelon on Monday March 30, 2020 @07:44PM (#22733348)
> Do you know better than the WHO?

Apparently.

The one thing I learned from this pandemic is to distrust scientists at the WHO and the CDC and to read the primary literature directly. These folks are far too involved in politics.

Re:Back-of-the-envelope estimates of next quarter’s unemploy... by ccktlmazeltov on Monday March 30, 2020 @07:48PM (#22733397)
If you're not stupid this is clearly to avoid people hoarding on masks which the hospitals are in dire need of.
Re:Back-of-the-envelope estimates of next quarter’s unemploy... by gertlex on Monday March 30, 2020 @08:16PM (#22733659)
Everywhere's the same on this, back and forth about this need vs population at large.

Obviously there's a need that's not being met, but it's nearly two months since masks became hard to acquire.[0] Can we not change the official recommendation to "make a cotton mask and wear it if you go out for groceries; here's a template. Don't use N95 masks, instead donate them"? It would be great to have numbers on this.

[0] anecdotal, Bay Area.

Looks like mask production has been ramping up since January, at least. But numbers of the big picture would be neat to see. https://www.wired.com/story/surreal-frenzy-inside-us-biggest...

Re:Back-of-the-envelope estimates of next quarter’s unemploy... by m4rtink on Monday March 30, 2020 @08:10PM (#22733613)
One way to address mask hoarding in the Czech Republic has been a ban on selling any masks in the categories needed by medical personnel to anyone else than the state, which then bouth the remaining stocks a redistributed them to hospitals, first responders, etc. Similar thing has later been done also for some medicaments that looked promising for treating those seriusly sick with covid-19.

Doing this really seem like a much better way to handle the situation than giving a really really dangerous false advice like this.

Re:Back-of-the-envelope estimates of next quarter’s unemploy... by echelon on Monday March 30, 2020 @07:53PM (#22733447)
> If you're not stupid this is clearly to avoid people hoarding on masks which the hospitals are in dire need of.

Better "trick" the public then.

Re:Back-of-the-envelope estimates of next quarter’s unemploy... by the8472 on Monday March 30, 2020 @08:03PM (#22733530)
Non, the CDC already had a policy of advising against masks before this pandemic. https://www.cdc.gov/h1n1flu/masks.htm
Re:Back-of-the-envelope estimates of next quarter’s unemploy... by chrisseaton on Monday March 30, 2020 @08:04PM (#22733542)
I don’t know anything about you but I really struggle to understand that you’ve got some insight into the literature that the professionals at the WHO are missing.

Seems to me that the biggest problem we have is lay people thinking they know better from reading random isolated papers without context and doing their own thing against advice designed to make everyone safer.

Re:Back-of-the-envelope estimates of next quarter’s unemploy... by codekilla on Monday March 30, 2020 @07:43PM (#22733343)
Yes, see my comments here: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22727995

It's bewildering the US and European guidance on this.

Edit: read this carefully: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2843947/ It will apply to SARS-CoV-2

Re:Back-of-the-envelope estimates of next quarter’s unemploy... by chrisseaton on Monday March 30, 2020 @07:46PM (#22733367)
Why do you think the WHO disagree with you on the facts? It doesn’t seem likely to me that they’re just less informed than you are.
Re:Back-of-the-envelope estimates of next quarter’s unemploy... by codekilla on Monday March 30, 2020 @07:53PM (#22733448)
Did you read the paper I linked? Read it, and then tell me what the facts are. Whether or not they are offering advice based on facts or political considerations is a matter of debate. There is no real meaningful debate on the mechanisms of influenza transmission. 1 mechanism is decidedly airborne. How else can you reasonably explain infection rates? Hundreds of thousands of people are letting other people sneeze directly on them? The literature is clear about this, frankly I have no idea what the WHO is smoking.
Re:Back-of-the-envelope estimates of next quarter’s unemploy... by chrisseaton on Tuesday March 31, 2020 @02:45PM (#22740985)
I'm not qualified to read and evaluate medical research. Are you? I rely on the WHO to understand the situation and what's best for everyone.
Re:Back-of-the-envelope estimates of next quarter’s unemploy... by codekilla on Tuesday March 31, 2020 @07:13PM (#22743797)
Yes, I work at one of the major universities in the US. Watch over the next week as the guidance on this changes.

Frankly, you don't need to be 'qualified' to read review articles in this area--I encourage any logical citizen to do so. Specialist articles?...sure, it's unlikely you will gain much from reading those.

Re:Back-of-the-envelope estimates of next quarter’s unemploy... by cameldrv on Monday March 30, 2020 @08:14PM (#22733650)
WHO said January 15 that there was no Human-Human spread of SARS-CoV-2. They are a politicized organization and you should not depend on what they have to say for unbiased factual information.

There is ample scientific evidence that masks work both to prevent being infected and to prevent infecting others.

The argument seems to be "there is sufficiently low risk from normal daily activities that it's not worth wearing a mask." If that's the case, why can't I leave my house except for groceries? How did all of those people catch this thing if the risk is so low? The reality is that the risk for everyone, given the severity of COVID is high. The risk for healthcare workers is beyond extreme.

Re:Back-of-the-envelope estimates of next quarter’s unemploy... by m4rtink on Monday March 30, 2020 @08:06PM (#22733566)
>I thought the expert advice from the WHO is to not wear a mask?

From what I gathered from their guidance the basically say masks are not effective enough to protect you & people do not know how to use them.

Well, the problem is that how well the mask protects you is at this point int time actually a secondary concern. The biggest issue is protecting others from you when you are infected and do not know that yet, which is a very big problem for covid-19 due to many asymptomatic carriers.

Even a piece of cloth covering your mount and nose can reduce the amount of infected droplets you generate be sneezing and breathing significantly if not totally stop transmission barring really close physical contact, so there is really no good reason for everyone not to wear a mask.

That WHO is totally neglecting this aspect of the mask protecting others is almost criminal negligence.

Re:Back-of-the-envelope estimates of next quarter’s unemploy... by codekilla on Monday March 30, 2020 @08:16PM (#22733669)
> From what I gathered from their guidance the basically say masks are not effective enough to protect you & people do not know how to use them.

Why give them to nurses and doctors then? It would suffice for the patients to wear them. If they do work at protecting you, then let's say a patient can't wear one, should you wear one? The answer is yes. Therefore the only logical conclusion is that an N95 mask protects you.

Re:Back-of-the-envelope estimates of next quarter’s unemploy... by pseudalopex on Monday March 30, 2020 @08:57PM (#22733939)
A properly worn N95 mask protects you. Any kind of mask protects other people.
Re:Back-of-the-envelope estimates of next quarter’s unemploy... by rch on Monday March 30, 2020 @07:50PM (#22733415)
My interpretation is that initially the public needed sit back and let healthcare providers acquire masks, but now it's time to cobble together something to wear when leaving the house, while still observing all other protocols.
Re:Back-of-the-envelope estimates of next quarter’s unemploy... by Causality1 on Monday March 30, 2020 @07:47PM (#22733379)
HN has featured multiple studies on the effects of wearing a cloth isolation masks. They all found it reduced the chances of catching it by over 50%. That's well worth it in my opinion.
Re:Back-of-the-envelope estimates of next quarter’s unemploy... by m4rtink on Monday March 30, 2020 @08:13PM (#22733635)
And to add to that - the other if not the main benefit of masks is it reduces the chance of transmission from infected people, if they do not know they are infected but wear a mask.
Re:Back-of-the-envelope estimates of next quarter’s unemploy... by chrisseaton on Tuesday March 31, 2020 @05:07AM (#22735969)
But the WHO say this is not the case. Who should people be listening to?
Re:Back-of-the-envelope estimates of next quarter’s unemploy... by m4rtink on Tuesday March 31, 2020 @10:40AM (#22737934)
From what I've read in various articles WHO just says masks might not be 100% effective at protecting you and that's it.

As far as I can tell, they are not saying anything about the other much more important aspect of masks protecting others when everyone wears them.

And that's in my opinion very very wrong and is most likely already costing many lives...

Re:Back-of-the-envelope estimates of next quarter’s unemploy... by chrisseaton on Tuesday March 31, 2020 @10:51AM (#22738055)
> From what I've read in various articles WHO just says masks might not be 100% effective at protecting you and that's it.

They say there is not enough evidence to back up the idea that the general population wearing masks has a benefit to everyone.

> There is no specific evidence to suggest that the wearing of masks by the mass population has any potential benefit.

Re:Back-of-the-envelope estimates of next quarter’s unemploy... by mattm on Monday March 30, 2020 @07:59PM (#22733505)
My wife was a nurse in Japan (a big mask-wearing culture) and I was always skeptical of it but from reading some articles of late, I've changed my stance on it and do believe that masks help. Here's some articles I've read lately that discuss this topic:

https://slatestarcodex.com/2020/03/23/face-masks-much-more-t...

> Some people with swine flu travelled on a plane from New York to China, and many fellow passengers got infected. Some researchers looked at whether passengers who wore masks throughout the flight stayed healthier. The answer was very much yes. They were able to track down 9 people who got sick on the flight and 32 who didn’t. 0% of the sick passengers wore masks, compared to 47% of the healthy passengers. Another way to look at that is that 0% of mask-wearers got sick, but 35% of non-wearers did.

https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2762689

> ...the vice president of Taiwan, a prominent epidemiologist, gave regular public service announcements... These announcements included when and where to wear a mask, the importance of handwashing, and the danger of hoarding masks to prevent them from becoming unavailable to frontline health workers.

https://www.researchgate.net/publication/258525804_Testing_t...

https://www.maskssavelives.org/

Re:Back-of-the-envelope estimates of next quarter’s unemploy... by devy on Monday March 30, 2020 @07:45PM (#22733358)
Ask the the front line ICU doctors and nurses, they know better.
Re:Back-of-the-envelope estimates of next quarter’s unemploy... by GloriousKoji on Monday March 30, 2020 @07:55PM (#22733464)
I really want to see solid numbers of this comparing cultures/countries with mask wearing to those without.

I'm not convinced masks help either way.