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Re:Back-of-the-envelope estimates of next quarter’s unemploy... by chrisseaton on Monday March 30, 2020 @07:55PM (#22733472)
Maybe that’s what the data supported at the time?

Shouldn’t we be going with data rather than ‘common sense’?

Re:Back-of-the-envelope estimates of next quarter’s unemploy... by AnthonyMouse on Monday March 30, 2020 @08:03PM (#22733529)
Sometimes you have the luxury of multiple trustworthy parties having already each done a large sample size peer reviewed double blind study on just the question you want to know the answer to and have all come to the same conclusion.

Other times that hasn't happened yet and you still need to make a decision about what to do today, not after six months of further study.

Re:Back-of-the-envelope estimates of next quarter’s unemploy... by dilap on Monday March 30, 2020 @10:30PM (#22734435)
You should apply your best judgement given all data available. Take neither common-sense nor study results as gospel.