Beware second waves of Covid-19 if lockdowns eased early: study

Re:Beware second waves of Covid-19 if lockdowns eased early:... by foobarian on Thursday March 26, 2020 @08:56PM (#22699555)

I find there is an uncomfortable blurry line in the sand here where it is somehow OK to let the flu kill tens of thousands without us batting an eyelash, but not OK for this illness to kill a million. At the end of the day the decision is pragmatic and based on money, similar to allowing motor vehicles on public roads (to the point where they are de facto required).

[ Parent | on HN ]

Re:Beware second waves of Covid-19 if lockdowns eased early:... by sgc on Thursday March 26, 2020 @09:06PM (#22699618)

There is nothing to say we were right to let the flu do that, and I would argue that we should reassess our moral compass in the face of all suffering and death as a society. This event should be a wake up call. We should invest much more resources and mindshare into alleviating suffering and stop accepting that these deaths are "inevitable".

[ Parent | on HN ]

Re:Beware second waves of Covid-19 if lockdowns eased early:... by foobarian on Thursday March 26, 2020 @11:24PM (#22700201)

Agreed, and I am hoping one outcome of this disaster will be that a lot more resources will be devoted to prevention/treatment of such illnesses we've come to accept as common. Flu for sure, maybe even the common cold.

[ Parent | on HN ]

Re:Beware second waves of Covid-19 if lockdowns eased early:... by vkou on Friday March 27, 2020 @03:40AM (#22701034)

This virus is currently killing people 30 times faster than the flu. ~0.01% of the population dies from the flu each year.

0.12% of the population of Italy died over the past two weeks from COVID-19, and the rate of deaths has still not peaked - despite a complete lockdown. Had there not been a lockdown, the death rate would have continued doubling every 3 days.

You're drawing a false equivalence.

[ Parent | on HN ]

Re:Beware second waves of Covid-19 if lockdowns eased early:... by jobigoud on Friday March 27, 2020 @04:53AM (#22701292)

> 0.12% of the population of Italy died over the past two weeks from COVID-19

I think you mixed up numbers, this looks too large by one order of magnitude. Maybe you used the numer of cases instead of deaths or something.

[ Parent | on HN ]

Re:Beware second waves of Covid-19 if lockdowns eased early:... by vkou on Friday March 27, 2020 @12:40PM (#22704398)

Sorry, I missed a zero. It's 0.012% - but over two weeks, instead of over a year. So, the 30x number is correct... But not the 0.12% one.

[ Parent | on HN ]

Re:Beware second waves of Covid-19 if lockdowns eased early:... by foobarian on Friday March 27, 2020 @09:07AM (#22702522)

I understand how much bigger the mortality is for this virus, and I understand why we are reacting this way. But how do you argue that deaths from one virus are not equivalent to the other? If it's just numbers, can you specify the number that is OK to let die instead of locking down?

[ Parent | on HN ]

Re:Beware second waves of Covid-19 if lockdowns eased early:... by vkou on Friday March 27, 2020 @12:39PM (#22704389)

If the death rate were within 5x of the flu, and if the death rate did not increase dramatically when our medical system is overloaded, a hard lockdown would probably be a mistake.

It's not 5x, and it does increase dramatically, though.

[ Parent | on HN ]

Re:Beware second waves of Covid-19 if lockdowns eased early:... by justforyou on Thursday March 26, 2020 @10:06PM (#22699925)

Comparing this to the flu is a non-starter for participating an an intelligent discussion about this.

[ Parent | on HN ]