Epidemiologist behind Imperial College coronavirus model revises model

Re:Epidemiologist behind Imperial College coronavirus model ... by neaden on Thursday March 26, 2020 @04:19PM (#22697520)

It does indeed, or what we are seeing in New York. I'm very skeptical of this, though it would of course be great news if it was true. I can't help but have whiplash from the fact that the UK seems to have gone from an attitude of we're going to be fine, to we're all going to die, to now it's going to be fine again.

Edit: I think it is important to keep in mind that Italy's deaths per day are still going up. The growth has slowed and hopefully we are about to see the peak but it still hasn't come. Most western countries are on the same growth rate as Italy, there is no reason right now to think we won't see something similar happen all over the world.

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Re:Epidemiologist behind Imperial College coronavirus model ... by irchans on Thursday March 26, 2020 @04:39PM (#22697746)

The number of new case per day in Italy has stabilized at 5000 to 6000 per day.

   Date      Cases  New Cases
   March 10  9172   1797
   March 11  10149  977
   March 12  12462  2313
   March 13  15113  2651
   March 14  17660  2547
   March 15  21157  3497
   March 16  24747  3590
   March 17  27980  3233
   March 18  31506  3526
   March 19  35713  4207
   March 20  41035  5322
   March 21  47021  5986
   March 22  53578  6557
   March 23  59138  5560
   March 24  63927  4789
   March 25  69176  5249
   March 26  74386  5210

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Re:Epidemiologist behind Imperial College coronavirus model ... by neaden on Thursday March 26, 2020 @04:56PM (#22697901)

New cases isn't a good metric because of how testing can change. Deaths is more reliable metric to be used when prevalence is high, as it is in Italy and now the US.

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Re:Epidemiologist behind Imperial College coronavirus model ... by salmon30salmon on Thursday March 26, 2020 @05:03PM (#22697971)

And in the case of Italy, you would expect the new case rate to outpace itself for a long while as testing is ramped up, but even with increased testing the new case level is leveling off. This indicates an already infected populace that has since recovered.

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Re:Epidemiologist behind Imperial College coronavirus model ... by glofish on Thursday March 26, 2020 @05:04PM (#22697976)

deaths are not a reliable metric at all. old and sick people are far more susceptible.

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