Re:New York Governor announces 100% workforce reduction for ...
by henryfjordan on Friday March 20, 2020 @04:26PM
(#22641302)
Why would we only expect half the world to get it? My understanding is that everyone needs to be eventually exposed in one way or another, either contracting the virus or getting a vaccine (when they are ready).
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Re:New York Governor announces 100% workforce reduction for ...
by pwaivers on Friday March 20, 2020 @04:52PM
(#22641537)
Herd Immunity (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Herd_immunity) means that everyone doesn't need to get it. The threshold for COVID-19 is estimated to be between 29-75%.
Re:New York Governor announces 100% workforce reduction for ...
by zaphirplane on Friday March 20, 2020 @07:18PM
(#22642733)
On a different note in scientific paper what is considered too large an error margin to consider it a value to talk about.
If the above is true that makes it what 52%+- 23
Re:New York Governor announces 100% workforce reduction for ...
by umanwizard on Friday March 20, 2020 @05:14PM
(#22641722)
Assume that everyone who has it spreads it to 2 people on average before dying or recovering. If one of the 2 people you would have spread it to is immune, you will only spread it to 1 person instead, and the total number of infected will not rise.
Re:New York Governor announces 100% workforce reduction for ...
by baobabKoodaa on Friday March 20, 2020 @09:39PM
(#22643502)
Huh? If you spread it to 1 person, then the total number of people who have been infected will rise by 1.
Re:New York Governor announces 100% workforce reduction for ...
by umanwizard on Friday March 20, 2020 @10:46PM
(#22643863)
I mean the total number of people sick at any given time, not the total number of people who have ever been infected.
Re:New York Governor announces 100% workforce reduction for ...
by baobabKoodaa on Saturday March 21, 2020 @10:20AM
(#22646644)
The parent poster asked "Why would we only expect half the world to get it?". It sounds like your answer to that is "no no, almost everybody will get it, they'll just get it at different times".
Re:New York Governor announces 100% workforce reduction for ...
by umanwizard on Saturday March 21, 2020 @11:15AM
(#22647046)
If the effective transmission rate is 1, yes, more people will get it, and then the effective rate will go below 1, and you enter exponential decay.