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A comment on California governor issues statewide 'stay at home' order. Parent comment

Re:California governor issues statewide 'stay at home' order by Animats on Thursday March 19, 2020 @11:06PM (#22634309)
It's just outside most people's experience.

Look at the graph.[1] Those are actuals, not predictions. This gets 10x bigger each week. The US is 12 days behind Italy. US at 10,000 now. 100,000 next week. 1 million in two weeks. The lockdown may slow that down. Probably not enough.

[1] https://www.ft.com/content/a26fbf7e-48f8-11ea-aeb3-955839e06...

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Re:California governor issues statewide 'stay at home' order by usaar333 on Thursday March 19, 2020 @11:31PM (#22634504)
I don't see any scenario where you could hit 60% of the population that fast.

I mean sure, if you held up the same R0, yes, that math works out, but people aren't trees. They'll voluntarily socially distance, dropping R0 significantly.

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