Re:California governor issues statewide 'stay at home' order
by ajross on Thursday March 19, 2020 @10:41PM
(#22634080)
The H1N1 epidemic in 2009 was objectively less contagious and less dangerous than COVID-19. In comparison, it grew mostly uncontained and eventually infected about a billion people. If COVID-19 was allowed to do exactly that we'd be looking at 10M fatalities, and realistically it would infect more people (being more novel than a mere flu).
The 25M number doesn't seem realistic because every country that has had a COVID-19 outbreak has freaked out trying to control it, and either succeeded via very expensive means or (in most cases) hasn't had the outbreak grow far enough to know whether or not they've failed.
Re:California governor issues statewide 'stay at home' order
by wolco on Thursday March 19, 2020 @10:59PM
(#22634243)
Using the billion figure best case is 40 million not accounting for which countries would be hit the hardest which would increase the rate as the systems get overwhelmed.
The 25M number doesn't seem realistic because every country that has had a COVID-19 outbreak has freaked out trying to control it, and either succeeded via very expensive means or (in most cases) hasn't had the outbreak grow far enough to know whether or not they've failed.