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Re:Show HN: Covid-19 Interactive Model by alik_ml on Thursday March 19, 2020 @03:19PM (#22630679)
Thank you very much for this, it's really great work.

Do you have a sense, or any benchmarks, for where the current responses across the world lie along the weak - strong mitigation scale? Or is that something we'll need to estimate using the model as the situation evolves more?

Re:Show HN: Covid-19 Interactive Model by nbnoll on Thursday March 19, 2020 @03:28PM (#22630756)
Not enough that I would feel confident publically stating. I think our best hope for accurate calibration would be to fit the data as it comes out (hence why we are focusing our efforts here) or to do a post-hoc analysis of a few examples, e.g. Wuhan vs South Korea. I'll note that mitigation effects will be best measured as a reduction in exponential growth.
Re:Show HN: Covid-19 Interactive Model by alik_ml on Thursday March 19, 2020 @04:00PM (#22631064)
That makes sense, thank you!