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Re:Upside-Down World of Negative Rates Is Coming for U.S. Sa... by kragen on Tuesday March 17, 2020 @12:45PM (#22606851)
The traditional answer to this question, for centuries, has been: if you're poor, buy gold, by weight — although acid for the acid test is getting harder to come by these days, very precise electronic scales are easy; if you're rich, open a Swiss bank account — no longer an option available to US citizens. At US$1534 per troy ounce, 20 kg of gold is worth US$986400, so you can carry your entire savings in a backpack in the form of gold if necessary. To a great extent this was illegal in the US from 1933, when the government confiscated all the gold and silver coins it could find, until 1974.

If you're buying today as opposed to two weeks ago you might consider some silver, because its price has been driven sharply down relative to gold by the recent flight to cash.

There are other options. You can use banknotes; although a US$100 bill has lost >90% of its value relative to gold since the end of the gold standard, 15 hundred-dollar bills still weigh less than an ounce. As we saw a couple of years ago in India, though, the government can declare your savings illegal with the stroke of a pen ("demonetization"), and then nobody in other countries will accept them anymore; less drastically, they can just print more money, producing inflation and having the same effect as a negative interest rate.

Gold and banknotes have the disadvantage that they're easy for bad people to steal from you, whether those bad people are the police ("asset forfeiture") or just have poor impulse control. Alternatives that are harder to steal: Bitcoin (although on Thursday it lost 50% of its value); treasury bonds (although they'll also lose value with negative interest rates and inflation); real estate (although some friends of mine had their house bulldozed by the government last year while they were fighting in court to keep it).

Diversify. And try to live somewhere that thinks that financial stability is more important than fighting drug trafficking or pedophiles or computer criminals or whatever excuse they're giving this year to take money from the poor and give it to the rich.

Re:Upside-Down World of Negative Rates Is Coming for U.S. Sa... by pmiller2 on Tuesday March 17, 2020 @12:58PM (#22607038)
Gold is fairly illiquid when you need cash in an emergency. There’s also some volatility to it. Those are two things you really don’t want in a store of value.
Re:Upside-Down World of Negative Rates Is Coming for U.S. Sa... by growlist on Tuesday March 17, 2020 @01:30PM (#22607483)
You'll likely still be able to sell gold for something in all but the very worst SHTF scenario. I'm not sure you can say the same about many other types of investment. Those ETFs won't buy many rabbits for the pot.
Re:Upside-Down World of Negative Rates Is Coming for U.S. Sa... by kragen on Tuesday March 17, 2020 @04:17PM (#22609837)
It's a good point though that silver is often more practical. Silver is also a hell of a bargain today (relative to gold).
Re:Upside-Down World of Negative Rates Is Coming for U.S. Sa... by pmoriarty on Tuesday March 17, 2020 @01:06PM (#22607155)
"if you're poor, buy gold, by weight — although acid for the acid test is getting harder to come by these days, very precise electronic scales are easy"

If you were really intent on buying physical gold, I don't know why you would bother with this instead of just buying gold coins from the US Mint. I don't think you'd have to worry about getting counterfeit gold in that case.

But why own physical gold? Why not just trade in gold futures or buy gold mining shares?

Same with silver.

"if you're rich, open a Swiss bank account — no longer an option available to US citizens"

If you want the stability of the Swiss Franc, it can be traded on the foreign exchange market.

Re:Upside-Down World of Negative Rates Is Coming for U.S. Sa... by kragen on Tuesday March 17, 2020 @01:14PM (#22607265)
> I don't know why you would bother with this instead of just buying gold coins from the US Mint

Heavy gold chains under your clothes are a lot safer when you're traveling than a bunch of coins. Moreover, the 1933 Executive Order confiscated the coins but not the chains.

> But why own physical gold? Why not just trade in gold futures or buy gold mining shares?

It's harder to confiscate, especially at scale.

> If you want the stability of the Swiss Franc, it can be traded on the foreign exchange market.

What does the franc have to do with anything? This is a non sequitur.

Re:Upside-Down World of Negative Rates Is Coming for U.S. Sa... by kragen on Tuesday March 17, 2020 @03:19PM (#22609051)
Also, I'd like to point out that historically speaking it's quite common for mints to substitute cheaper metals in new issues of the same coins; this has happened since at least the Roman empire. The most conspicuous case of this in the US was when in 1965 the mint replaced the silver quarter and dime with silver-plated copper and the copper penny with copper-plated zinc; of course silver-plated copper quarters had existed in the US since at least the 1800s, but at that time they were called "counterfeit quarters". You can read about them in Huckleberry Finn.

Of course coin collectors and anyone dealing in bullion will not treat the coins as equivalent, and historically speaking this is one of the reasons for stamping the year and mint mark on the coins, but this is entirely at the discretion of the mint; there's nothing stopping them from issuing new "gold" coins with a lower percentage of gold and the same year mark, except for the same kind of social pressures that prevent the government from simply expropriating the contents of your bank account (as they did here in Argentina in 2001) or refusing to pay its bonds (as is happening here in Argentina right now.)

You might object that the United States isn't Argentina. But until just before 2001 Argentina wasn't Argentina either, not as we know it today; its troubles were behind it and it was the model country the IMF would show off to demonstrate how effective its economic recovery plans could be, even as the economy was gradually hollowed out. People living in the US, a country whose stock market just fell by 30% in a month and which didn't manage to produce or allow the importation of a reasonable number of COVID-19 tests until this weekend (although Korea, Japan, Germany, Taiwan, and China had no trouble with this) may find this sounds familiar.

If someone is concerned about the banking system expropriating their savings, it is not a reasonable response to offer them an alternative that makes it easy for banks, stockbrokers, or the government to expropriate their savings. That's precisely the kind of threat they want to defend against.