Re:50% – 75% of cases of Covid-19 are asymptomatic
by shadowprofile77 on Tuesday March 17, 2020 @09:26AM
(#22604646)
Sincerely curious, how do you square this with the CFR in Italy at this time? That the initial impact to primarily elderly people and a low count of cases compared to a much larger undiagnosed quantity (still mostly undiagnosed cases) are creating a high death rate statistic? Or do you think some other factors are at work there?
Re:50% – 75% of cases of Covid-19 are asymptomatic
by jonplackett on Tuesday March 17, 2020 @04:57AM
(#22603016)
I made a simple site to graph the daily increase figures. It only shows infections and deaths but from that you can see very different ratios for different countries.
(http://coronanalytics.com if you’re interested.)
Re:50% – 75% of cases of Covid-19 are asymptomatic
by travisr on Tuesday March 17, 2020 @11:12AM
(#22605602)
You might try sorting the countries in your select input. They appear to be in some random order and I almost gave up looking for the country I was interested in.
Re:50% – 75% of cases of Covid-19 are asymptomatic
by jonplackett on Tuesday March 17, 2020 @05:16PM
(#22610540)
This is a good shout. I’m just using them in the order the John Hopkins institute put them. A sort would be useful!
Re:50% – 75% of cases of Covid-19 are asymptomatic
by nickm12 on Wednesday March 18, 2020 @03:04AM
(#22614315)
Came back from the link to leave the same comment. It's impossible to use that selector.
Re:50% – 75% of cases of Covid-19 are asymptomatic
by underlines on Tuesday March 17, 2020 @05:43AM
(#22603246)
do you respect the time delay when calculating Case Fatality Rate?
Re:50% – 75% of cases of Covid-19 are asymptomatic
by jonplackett on Tuesday March 17, 2020 @05:15PM
(#22610531)
I’m just using the data straight from the John Hopkins institute.
I came to similar conclusion just looking at the openly available numbers: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries
If you compare the number of serious cases to the number of total cases for different countries you'll get a 10x difference. Norway tests more thoroughly then the other countries, so it has a huge number of active cases. But from those only ~2% serious. There may be different reasons for such a discrepancy but I tend to agree with your conclusion that we have a lot of asymptomatic cases around, higher then estimated R0 and lower then estimated fatality.