Probably not unless you have popup / prefab hospitals.
> Have a look at the state of capacity in Italy: it's closed to maxed out with lots of improvised wards.
Italy is not "close to maxed out", it's way overcapacity. It might seem like it's at capacity if you count the total number of ICU beds in the entire country, but most of the cases for now are in the north, so the actual radio is way higher. Lombardia was at ~200% capacity circa wednesday.
Source?
Mine is:
https://www.giornaledibrescia.it/italia-ed-estero/coronaviru...
Google Translate:
"«We have very few free places in intensive care, now we are in the order of 15 or 20 available. Every day we get someone new, tomorrow 3 more arrive and San Raffaele is creating an area with 14 seats which will be ready, however, in a week. Today we recover them by closing the operating rooms, where there are respirators that can also be used to support the breath »."
The only real hope here is to prevent infections via quarantine measures, there is absolutely no way to build out the kind of health care capacity that would be needed in a pessimal outbreak.
Because there are so many variables, no one knows yet what the numbers will work out to be. The only safe thing to do is to expand capacity as much as possible by taking extreme measures.