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A comment on Covid-19 is now officially a pandemic, WHO says. Parent comment

Re:Covid-19 is now officially a pandemic, WHO says by abstractbarista on Wednesday March 11, 2020 @01:31PM (#22547864)
From the death %, symptoms, and recovery stats, it really is mostly "just the flu".

If you are otherwise healthy, this is like getting a cold with a fever for a week, then feeling better.

Sure, call it a pandemic, because it is worldwide. But honestly it's just not that remarkable. This isn't some godly virus with 25% death rates!

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Re:Covid-19 is now officially a pandemic, WHO says by JulianMorrison on Wednesday March 11, 2020 @01:36PM (#22547964)
80-something percent of the time yes. The remainder is divided between "you need hospital, but will be fine" and "serious intensive care needed".

The trouble is that (1) the people who need hospital to be fine need hospital. They won't be fine if it isn't there, and (2) by being a selfish ass and treating it like just the flu, when it's a disease that grows exponentially in a no-immunity population, people are amplifying the speed and height of the peak, which means not enough hospital places.

If you get a situation where effectively nobody who needs hospital can get it - then those 20-ish percent just drop dead. And then there's your godly death rate.

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Re:Covid-19 is now officially a pandemic, WHO says by mcguire on Wednesday March 11, 2020 @03:10PM (#22549285)
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/2017-2018.htm#table1

2% of those infected with influenza (estimated, 4% of those who sought medical intervention) in 2017-2018 required hospitalization.

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Re:Covid-19 is now officially a pandemic, WHO says by abstractbarista on Wednesday March 11, 2020 @01:48PM (#22548179)
It's not selfish to treat something like the flu. This means I wash my hands, get vaccinated yearly, and take other common-sense precautions. That's not "being an ass", it's being rational.
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Re:Covid-19 is now officially a pandemic, WHO says by rsynnott on Wednesday March 11, 2020 @02:26PM (#22548705)
And which vaccine were you considering getting for this, precisely?

That's part of the problem; even if it was "just like the flu" (it is not; in particular the percentage of cases requiring advanced medical treatment is much higher, which will lead to a rise in mortality as that treatment is oversubscribed), the flu would be pretty scary if the annual vaccine didn't exist.

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Re:Covid-19 is now officially a pandemic, WHO says by abstractbarista on Wednesday March 11, 2020 @02:38PM (#22548850)
And isn't it amazing how many people neglect to get the flu vaccine (even when they can afford it - I don't look down on those who can't)?

The flu is actually quite scary - they are the frog in hot water.

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Re:Covid-19 is now officially a pandemic, WHO says by ionwake on Wednesday March 11, 2020 @02:53PM (#22549029)
are you talking to yourself?
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Re:Covid-19 is now officially a pandemic, WHO says by Tyr42 on Wednesday March 11, 2020 @01:58PM (#22548337)
There isn't a vaccine yet.
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Re:Covid-19 is now officially a pandemic, WHO says by abstractbarista on Wednesday March 11, 2020 @02:37PM (#22548829)
Obviously. Which is why you do the other common-sense things you should always do. Wash hands, don't touch your mouth, etc.
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Re:Covid-19 is now officially a pandemic, WHO says by ionwake on Wednesday March 11, 2020 @02:55PM (#22549070)
You're being patronising and he aswell as others , did not understand your point.
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Re:Covid-19 is now officially a pandemic, WHO says by JulianMorrison on Wednesday March 11, 2020 @01:54PM (#22548258)
Common sense precautions here are much more stringent than the flu. Nobody is immune. There is no vaccination. Herd immunity is nil. And it's very infectious.

This is a new thing and you should treat it as a new thing. There has not in living memory been one this bad, against which we had no defense except to avoid catching it and spreading it.

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Re:Covid-19 is now officially a pandemic, WHO says by abstractbarista on Wednesday March 11, 2020 @02:42PM (#22548889)
Actually MERS was far more scary with a death rate around 34% (from WHO). It just didn't transmit so well.
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Re:Covid-19 is now officially a pandemic, WHO says by BlargMcLarg on Wednesday March 11, 2020 @01:39PM (#22548014)
Except the statistics have been so wildly different across sources it'd be very unwise to follow any of them, and instead check the stories where possible. Only yesterday someone posted the accounts of people in Italy being overwhelmed. Last time I checked, a regular flu doesn't smash through a hospital's capacity so hard they have to ask doctors to change focus.
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Re:Covid-19 is now officially a pandemic, WHO says by wool_gather on Wednesday March 11, 2020 @02:20PM (#22548636)
I think you're referring to a Twitter thread where a doctor relayed descriptions of hospital conditions from another doctor in Lombardy. It was a horrifying story (and scared me, I admit), but I would suggest caution.

Unless there's information that's not making it out of Italy, the death statistics reported today don't seem to align with the picture painted by those tweets.

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Re:Covid-19 is now officially a pandemic, WHO says by abstractbarista on Wednesday March 11, 2020 @01:47PM (#22548157)
The thing is, that infrastructure already prepared yearly for the flu. They have capacity designed around it. It is "normal" for thousands to die from the flu yearly, and nobody says anything. (Except that you should obviously be vaccinated.)
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Re:Covid-19 is now officially a pandemic, WHO says by tigershark on Wednesday March 11, 2020 @02:46PM (#22548952)
If this will reach the same infection numbers as the flu the deaths in US would be many millions. Do you think that it’s the same thing?
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Re:Covid-19 is now officially a pandemic, WHO says by mcguire on Wednesday March 11, 2020 @03:15PM (#22549338)
There were an estimated 44,000,000 flu cases in the US in 2017-2018. Assuming a worst-case-with-current-data death rate of 3.5%, that's about 1,500,000 deaths. Not millions.
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Re:Covid-19 is now officially a pandemic, WHO says by abnry on Wednesday March 11, 2020 @01:33PM (#22547894)
It is remarkable, it's just not civilization destroying. Lots of old and vulnerable people will die. The healthcare system will be taxed for many months to come.
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Re:Covid-19 is now officially a pandemic, WHO says by TeMPOraL on Wednesday March 11, 2020 @01:35PM (#22547931)
Also the economy will get beaten up, with lots of people finding themselves suddenly in financial distress, and generally almost everyone will have it worse than it would be if the virus never happened.
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Re:Covid-19 is now officially a pandemic, WHO says by abstractbarista on Wednesday March 11, 2020 @01:52PM (#22548228)
This is where most of the fear should actually be directed. There are huge losses in productivity, income, and general enjoyment of life.
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Re:Covid-19 is now officially a pandemic, WHO says by abstractbarista on Wednesday March 11, 2020 @01:43PM (#22548088)
that remarkable refers to a lower degree of "remarkability" than that stated by OP.

It is remarkable in that it is novel, but that's mostly it.

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Re:Covid-19 is now officially a pandemic, WHO says by odorousrex on Wednesday March 11, 2020 @01:36PM (#22547955)
This is misinformation, and spreading misinformation like this is not helping anyone, and can actively hurt people.

Please educate yourself: https://www.flattenthecurve.com/

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Re:Covid-19 is now officially a pandemic, WHO says by Waterluvian on Wednesday March 11, 2020 @01:33PM (#22547893)
Where do you live that CV is 20-30x less deadly than elsewhere? From the numbers I'm seeing, it's not just the flu.
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Re:Covid-19 is now officially a pandemic, WHO says by abstractbarista on Wednesday March 11, 2020 @01:45PM (#22548121)
30x of 0.1% still ain't bad.
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Re:Covid-19 is now officially a pandemic, WHO says by TheCoelacanth on Wednesday March 11, 2020 @02:00PM (#22548364)
200 million people (probably more in reality because of how overwhelmed the healthcare system would be) dying isn't bad?
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Re:Covid-19 is now officially a pandemic, WHO says by abstractbarista on Wednesday March 11, 2020 @02:35PM (#22548804)
Seasonal flu kills 291k to 646k people each year...
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Re:Covid-19 is now officially a pandemic, WHO says by tigershark on Wednesday March 11, 2020 @02:49PM (#22548987)
This will kill 2 orders of magnitude more. Sounds good to have 30-70 millions deaths?
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Re:Covid-19 is now officially a pandemic, WHO says by rsynnott on Wednesday March 11, 2020 @02:28PM (#22548721)
3% of people who catch a highly infectious disease dying of it is _ridiculously_ bad.
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Re:Covid-19 is now officially a pandemic, WHO says by fzeroracer on Wednesday March 11, 2020 @02:26PM (#22548706)
Something doesn't have to have 25% death rates to be dangerous. Your way of thinking is quite frankly not only flawed but also incredibly harmful to the actual dangers of the coronavirus.

Which is that entire communities can be infected in a very short amount of time, overwhelming local medical infrastructure and resulting in deaths and harm because the doctors simply can't keep up. What was originally something that could be treated then becomes life threatening.

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Re:Covid-19 is now officially a pandemic, WHO says by brazzledazzle on Wednesday March 11, 2020 @01:55PM (#22548288)
Are we allowed to flag a comment because it contains advice that could result in harm or death?
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Re:Covid-19 is now officially a pandemic, WHO says by abstractbarista on Wednesday March 11, 2020 @02:43PM (#22548911)
Might as well try?
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Re:Covid-19 is now officially a pandemic, WHO says by tigershark on Wednesday March 11, 2020 @01:43PM (#22548086)
It’s around 4% of mortality, the flu in US kills about 2 orders of magnitude less.
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Re:Covid-19 is now officially a pandemic, WHO says by GhostVII on Wednesday March 11, 2020 @01:45PM (#22548124)
I think it is too early to say much about the mortality rate. 4% is an upper bound, since that is how many lab confirmed cases have resulted in death, but that doesn't account for all of the minor cases where people didn't even know they had it.
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Re:Covid-19 is now officially a pandemic, WHO says by eveningcoffee on Wednesday March 11, 2020 @08:30PM (#22552298)
4% might be an upper bound under normal situation when there is sufficient availability of intensive care places. When these places become saturated then % of mortality will approach % of people needing intensive care.

Please also note that many people who require intensive care but survive are left with huge chronic damage to their lungs that will affect their quality of life for the rest of their lives.

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Re:Covid-19 is now officially a pandemic, WHO says by abstractbarista on Wednesday March 11, 2020 @01:44PM (#22548107)
False, it is currently thought to be between 0.5-4%. But this is probably a high estimate, because many or most cases have not been detected.

https://www.flattenthecurve.com/

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Re:Covid-19 is now officially a pandemic, WHO says by tigershark on Wednesday March 11, 2020 @01:53PM (#22548252)
Did you even read what you linked?

“Earlier in the epidemic, there was hope that 3.5 percent was grossly overestimated, however as evidence continues to emerge, there is dwindling support for that hope.”

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Re:Covid-19 is now officially a pandemic, WHO says by abstractbarista on Wednesday March 11, 2020 @02:35PM (#22548811)
Yes. Look at the blue graph. 0.5~4%.
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Re:Covid-19 is now officially a pandemic, WHO says by empath75 on Wednesday March 11, 2020 @01:33PM (#22547902)
It's collapsing health care systems every where it breaks out. It doesn't take a high hospitalization rate before the CFR jumps way up. Italy's is 4% because they're just letting older people die because they don't have the resources to treat them.
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Re:Covid-19 is now officially a pandemic, WHO says by ziotom78 on Wednesday March 11, 2020 @02:36PM (#22548820)
I am an Italian and live in Bergamo, the Italian town that is so far the most affected. The impression that Italy is letting older people die is false, at least at the moment [1]; however, there are people that suggest this might be a guideline to be followed, should the virus continue spreading. I believe that the somewhat higher mortality rate in Italy could partly be due to the fact that our mean age is higher than in other European countries [2].

[1] https://www.ecodibergamo.it/stories/bergamo-citta/evitiamo-i... (Italian)

[2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_median_ag...

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Re:Covid-19 is now officially a pandemic, WHO says by empath75 on Wednesday March 11, 2020 @03:56PM (#22549831)
are you sure? https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/03/who-gets-h...
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Re:Covid-19 is now officially a pandemic, WHO says by ziotom78 on Wednesday March 11, 2020 @10:33PM (#22553060)
Yes, I am sure, and the article you quote confirms this:

> "It may become necessary to establish an age limit for access to intensive care." [Emphasis mine]

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