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Re:Italy is extending its coronavirus quarantine measures to... by AnthonyMouse on Tuesday March 10, 2020 @12:20AM (#22532699)
"Exponential growth" in itself isn't really the issue. If every week you have 10,000% as many cases as last week, you're screwed. If every week you have 105% as many cases as last week (i.e. 5% more), that's exponential, but after a year there would be less than a 13X increase, by which point there could be a vaccine or other measures that cause the weekly number to go from 105% to 95%.

You can also have non-exponential growth and still have many new cases, if people are getting over their infections faster than they're infecting new people. If a million people were currently infected and every week 500,000 new people were infected but 500,001 of the existing infected people recovered, that means the number of currently infected people declines over time, but you'd still have 500,000 new cases every week and just about everybody might eventually get infected before it dies out, even if it eventually does. (This is similar to what happens with the flu, except that it has exponential growth in winter and then below exponential growth in the other three seasons, so the actually dying out never really comes.)

To really get rid of it you want to have something like 100,000 cases last week and 75,000 cases this week and so on. But even then you might have 25,000 fewer cases this week because 50,000 people recovered but 25,000 new people got infected.

So whether it has exponential growth or not isn't really the issue. It's what the growth rate is. A small exponential growth rate isn't catastrophic -- the number of cases grows but not so fast that everybody is infected by the time they have a vaccine or other more effective countermeasures that get the growth rate back below exponential.

Most importantly, the growth rate isn't immutable. It's affected by things like people washing their hands and having effective testing and quarantines. So will things be fine? They will if people do the right things. Maybe some of them have been and some of them haven't. Maybe they'll get better at it going forward, maybe they won't. As a result there is a significant amount of uncertainty.

But panic is useless. Even if all they can do is reduce the growth rate from 150% to 130%, that still buys more time to respond. Even if everybody ultimately gets it, better that it happen over five years than five months. And if some people are doing it wrong, try to help them do better. Everybody likes to see the bad orange man look stupid on the television, but maybe this is a situation where we come out better off with everybody working together.

Re:Italy is extending its coronavirus quarantine measures to... by pishpash on Tuesday March 10, 2020 @04:08AM (#22533622)
Problem with exponential growth is that you can be a little off in the exponent and be totally off in the result. Such is the fragility of any assumption about exponents being "small".
Re:Italy is extending its coronavirus quarantine measures to... by AnthonyMouse on Tuesday March 10, 2020 @11:29AM (#22536257)
> Problem with exponential growth is that you can be a little off in the exponent and be totally off in the result.

Which is why the growth rate is really what matters. Which isn't immutable. It goes down if people wash their hands. It goes down if sick people stay at home.

This is also why it really matters if the rate is 150% or 130%, even if both are very bad, because the higher rate is very worse. And the rate gets lower if sick people stay home, but it gets higher if idiots panic and start hoarding masks and stealing hand sanitizer which increases the rate of infection when they aren't there for other people to use.

Panic is not just useless, it's actively harmful.

Re:Italy is extending its coronavirus quarantine measures to... by tomp on Tuesday March 10, 2020 @10:43AM (#22535836)
Not really, only if you don't recalibrate every so often... but this can happen in any kind of growth. Even linear growth with unequal coefficients diverges after some amount of time, exponential growth just gets there faster.
Re:Italy is extending its coronavirus quarantine measures to... by pishpash on Tuesday March 10, 2020 @06:51PM (#22540742)
This is so wrong. The ratio between exp(x+ϵ) and exp(x) for even ϵ arbitrarily close to zero is infinity in the limit of large x. There is nothing like it with any polynomial growth for any exponent. The ratio between (x+ϵ)^p and x^p for arbitrarily large p is 1 in the limit of large x, for any ϵ.

Another sign that people don't get exponential growth, even if they think they do.

Re:Italy is extending its coronavirus quarantine measures to... by tomp on Tuesday March 10, 2020 @06:59PM (#22540847)
The ratio is, but the absolute value difference (which is what actually matters for humans) grows beyond bounds for both.
Re:Italy is extending its coronavirus quarantine measures to... by pfdietz on Tuesday March 10, 2020 @03:19AM (#22533414)
Calls to not panic are worse that useless. They are dangerous, extremely dangerous now. They lead to complacency and they will lead to death.
Re:Italy is extending its coronavirus quarantine measures to... by hef19898 on Tuesday March 10, 2020 @04:14AM (#22533656)
No, panic is making it much more difficult to implement counter measures. It also takes away crucial man power from fighting the disease to fighting the panic. And finally, panic makes it harder for health care professionals to actually care for patients.

So no, panic never helps. Staying calm and level headed does.

But if you want to panic, do it. But do it in private, panic itself is rather contagious as well. Maybe self-quarantine.

Re:Italy is extending its coronavirus quarantine measures to... by Lewton on Tuesday March 10, 2020 @06:03AM (#22534146)
> No, panic is making it much more difficult to implement counter measures.

Here in Denmark, where we're seeing an outbreak take hold, it's the EXACT opposite.

People are going out even though they have been told to self-quarantine, even boarding planes.

A couple refused to cancel a vacation trip even though they had been asked to quarantine because their son has been diagnosed with the virus.

I really think we could use a tiny bit more panic

Re:Italy is extending its coronavirus quarantine measures to... by hef19898 on Tuesday March 10, 2020 @06:10AM (#22534189)
I would call it more common sense, but yeah.
Re:Italy is extending its coronavirus quarantine measures to... by Lewton on Tuesday March 10, 2020 @06:26AM (#22534263)
Giving people more common sense is not one of the tools we have available in our toolbox
Re:Italy is extending its coronavirus quarantine measures to... by hef19898 on Tuesday March 10, 2020 @06:35AM (#22534304)
Unfortunately you are very right.
Re:Italy is extending its coronavirus quarantine measures to... by pfdietz on Tuesday March 10, 2020 @04:15AM (#22533661)
The point I was raising was that calls to not panic suppress non-panic activities. They are sending the message that there's nothing much to worry about. This is extraordinarily dangerous. If necessary precautions will also cause some to panic, so be it.

At this point, things are so looking so grim that there's no way to tell people not to panic without unacceptable downplaying of the gravity of the situation.

Re:Italy is extending its coronavirus quarantine measures to... by afiori on Tuesday March 10, 2020 @05:14AM (#22533936)
But then the counterpoint is that once panic steps in it becomes hard to manage. People should be called to take this seriously and to proper civic duties.

Panic is was caused the toilet paper craze.

Re:Italy is extending its coronavirus quarantine measures to... by pfdietz on Tuesday March 10, 2020 @07:53AM (#22534621)
Or perhaps the shortage of toilet paper was a consequence of rational preparation for a worst case scenario, not a sign of panic.
Re:Italy is extending its coronavirus quarantine measures to... by afiori on Tuesday March 10, 2020 @08:03AM (#22534683)
That is actually entirely possible, I imagine supermarkets try to minimize storage as much as anyone else so shortages might just mean that people are just synchronously doing normal shopping.

In at least a few cases though I doubt it was not panic buying.

Re:Italy is extending its coronavirus quarantine measures to... by zapita on Tuesday March 10, 2020 @06:06AM (#22534168)
Oh no! The toilet paper craze. That is absolutely the biggest threat we are facing right now. Not the complacency on display everywhere.
Re:Italy is extending its coronavirus quarantine measures to... by Tainnor on Tuesday March 10, 2020 @08:01AM (#22534675)
In Germany (and probably other places too), people are stealing masks and desinfectant from hospitals - places where this is really needed. I think this is a big issue and it needs to be addressed.
Re:Italy is extending its coronavirus quarantine measures to... by hef19898 on Tuesday March 10, 2020 @08:31AM (#22534828)
This, not this toilett pper issue, is why panic is bad. Toilett paper hording just is a great early sign from from the more serious stuff happening as well.
Re:Italy is extending its coronavirus quarantine measures to... by afiori on Tuesday March 10, 2020 @06:41AM (#22534336)
I would say that the biggest threat is a dichotomy fallacy. Just because an extreme is wrong it does not mean that the other is right.

This should be taken seriously and people should put effort into prevention, but honestly I would prefer calling upon people's sense of civic duty rather than panic.

Re:Italy is extending its coronavirus quarantine measures to... by pfdietz on Tuesday March 10, 2020 @07:40AM (#22534564)
At this point, if we're not seeing at least some panic we're doing it wrong. The level of warning has to be such that the most skittish elements of society are freaked out, otherwise the average person will not be taking it seriously enough.
Re:Italy is extending its coronavirus quarantine measures to... by gpderetta on Tuesday March 10, 2020 @06:55AM (#22534395)
> Panic is was caused the toilet paper craze.

If that's the extent of the damage caused by panic, then we are going to be fine.

Re:Italy is extending its coronavirus quarantine measures to... by afiori on Tuesday March 10, 2020 @07:22AM (#22534487)
To this I would point out that two months ago you could say that about COVID-19
Re:Italy is extending its coronavirus quarantine measures to... by gpderetta on Tuesday March 10, 2020 @08:09AM (#22534713)
I man, the situation is extremely dire. I'm just amused by the 'toilet buying' craze which in comparison to everything else is a very mild issue.