Re:Age, Sex, Existing Conditions of Covid-19 Cases and Deaths
by bart_spoon on Thursday February 27, 2020 @09:51AM
(#22433707)
This is the aspect of the disease that is so interesting to me. With many diseases, like the flu, the most at risk are the elderly and the very young. But barely 1% of infections in China are children younger than 10, and 0 deaths.
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Re:Age, Sex, Existing Conditions of Covid-19 Cases and Deaths
by AndrewThrowaway on Thursday February 27, 2020 @10:06AM
(#22433865)
Can it be that smoking plays big part in this? As this also explains gender statistics.
Re:Age, Sex, Existing Conditions of Covid-19 Cases and Deaths
by oefrha on Thursday February 27, 2020 @10:13AM
(#22433929)
An early preprint from the team of China’s leading expert Zhong Nanshan tagged smokers and non-smokers among the 1099 cases they analyzed. 85.4% supposedly never smoked, with 14.5% of those cases severe. So it’s not like non-smokers are very much immune.
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.06.20020974v...
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.06.20020974v...
Re:Age, Sex, Existing Conditions of Covid-19 Cases and Deaths
by AndrewThrowaway on Thursday February 27, 2020 @10:16AM
(#22433960)
I would say that it really dismisses smoking as a big factor then.
Re:Age, Sex, Existing Conditions of Covid-19 Cases and Deaths
by dredmorbius on Thursday February 27, 2020 @12:25PM
(#22435417)
I wouldn't: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22435408
Re:Age, Sex, Existing Conditions of Covid-19 Cases and Deaths
by oefrha on Thursday February 27, 2020 @10:20AM
(#22433991)
The percentage of severe cases among smokers is definitely higher, although the sample size is small.
Re:Age, Sex, Existing Conditions of Covid-19 Cases and Deaths
by dredmorbius on Thursday February 27, 2020 @12:24PM
(#22435408)
Looking at the numbers from Wei-jie Guan et al (https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.06.20020974v...):
nonsmokers = 927 cases, 793 non-severe, 134 severe
exsmokers = 21 cases, 12 non-severe, 9 severe
smokers = 137 cases, 108 non-severe, 29 severe
That gives:
nonsmokers: 14% severe cases of presented
ex-smokers: 43% severe cases of presented
smokers: 21% severe cases of presented
The low number of ex-smokers as well as other factors (did they quit because of advanced smoking-related diseases, etc.?) makes that number hard to interpret.
But smoking carries a normalised average 40% increased risk of severe cases.
100 * (21-14)/((21 + 14)/2) = 40
Re:Age, Sex, Existing Conditions of Covid-19 Cases and Deaths
by pqdfdsaff on Thursday February 27, 2020 @02:24PM
(#22436799)
Isn't smoking much more common among the Chinese than this sample suggests? I would expect a random sample to include more smokers than not. It may imply that the act of smoking or the associated health states reduce the likelihood of infection, even if they increase the likelihood of a bad infection if it does land.