U.S. Identifies First Coronavirus Case Without Outbreak Ties

Re:U.S. Identifies First Coronavirus Case Without Outbreak Ties by sciinfo on Thursday February 27, 2020 @12:59AM (#22430937)

Here are estimates from MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis at Imperial College:

=> Estimated fatality ratio for infections 1% (including those who with mild cases and don't go to see doctors)

=> Estimated Case Fatality Rate (CFR) for travellers outside mainland China (mix severe & milder cases) 1%-5%

=> Estimated CFR for detected cases in Hubei (severe cases) 18%

The last line (18%) applies when the outbreak becomes prevalent in an area and overwhelm hospital capacity.

No country has sufficient ventilators, ECMO machines, and medical staff if infections become widespread since about 20% of infections requires hospitalization. People who need medical care from other causes would suffer from resource shortages as well. If not contained, dozens of cities around the world may become Hubei!

Marc Lipsitch, Professor of Epidemiology at Harvard, believes that it might infect 40-70% of population (excl. kids) without effective control measures. His articles here: https://twitter.com/mlipsitch/status/1232504457377861632

Reference: Report 4 here: https://www.imperial.ac.uk/mrc-global-infectious-disease-ana...

From Report 6: "we estimated that about two thirds of COVID-19 cases exported from mainland China have remained undetected worldwide, potentially resulting in multiple chains of as yet undetected human-to-human transmission outside mainland China."

For concise interviews with experts and other info: Follow their Twitter at @MRC_Outbreak https://twitter.com/MRC_Outbreak

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Re:U.S. Identifies First Coronavirus Case Without Outbreak Ties by sciinfo on Thursday February 27, 2020 @01:13AM (#22431019)

For people thinking it is just like SARS, MERS, or Swine Flu, check out these graphs: https://ncov.r6.no/

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Re:U.S. Identifies First Coronavirus Case Without Outbreak Ties by bamboozled on Thursday February 27, 2020 @03:06AM (#22431545)

According to one of those graphs it has a 50% fatality rate? Seems a little surprising.

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Re:U.S. Identifies First Coronavirus Case Without Outbreak Ties by tree3 on Thursday February 27, 2020 @04:16AM (#22431830)

No, the graphs that have both solid and dashed lines have two separate vertical axis on the left and right.

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Re:U.S. Identifies First Coronavirus Case Without Outbreak Ties by bamboozled on Thursday February 27, 2020 @06:31AM (#22432378)

Sorry, that was unclear to me. You're right.

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Re:U.S. Identifies First Coronavirus Case Without Outbreak Ties by oefrha on Thursday February 27, 2020 @01:36AM (#22431142)

Report 4 was published on Feb 10 (the report itself doesn't include any date info, which IMO is a huge mistake, but you bet the data is even older -- the last death recorded in the attached CSV file was from Jan 23), with a couple of stats derived from only two deaths. I would take this report with a bowl of salt, or even mark it as obsolete.

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Re:U.S. Identifies First Coronavirus Case Without Outbreak Ties by sciinfo on Thursday February 27, 2020 @01:42AM (#22431171)

I have followed the news closely, the CFR might decrease a bit in Hubei because China has reinforced it with 20,000 medical staff and hospitals. They also have found some better treatments (not a cure, to be clear).

The approx. 20% hospitalization figure is the elephant in the room. Even if reduced to 10% or 5%, it would still overwhelm medical resources of any country.

The point is if a country gets complacent, it could be too late to contain it without drastic measures and mass sufferings.

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Re:U.S. Identifies First Coronavirus Case Without Outbreak Ties by oefrha on Thursday February 27, 2020 @01:46AM (#22431191)

> The approx. 20% hospitalization figure is the elephant in the room, even if reduced to 10% or 5%, would still overwhelm medical resources of any country though.

That's for sure. Hopefully fewer people will be touting the "it's just a slightly worse flu" or "common flu kills more" nonsense by now.

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Re:U.S. Identifies First Coronavirus Case Without Outbreak Ties by aiyodev on Thursday February 27, 2020 @01:54AM (#22431229)

I believe the fatality rate in Iran is ~16% which is consistent with what you’re saying here.

Edit: Downvotes? Really?

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Re:U.S. Identifies First Coronavirus Case Without Outbreak Ties by mullingitover on Thursday February 27, 2020 @03:17AM (#22431584)

I think this probably means that Iran isn't identifying all the cases, not that they actually have a 16% fatality rate.

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