You’re projecting a lot more certainty than the experts have about that: https://www.nationalgeographic.com/science/2020/02/what-happ...

Additionally, even if there is seasonality, it may be that this has already spread too far to die out completely and cases will rise again in the northern hemisphere toward the end of 2020.

And what about the southern hemisphere? In addition to any suffering that might occur there, that also creates a huge reservoir from which the northern hemisphere can^H^H^Hwill be reinfected. And that's assuming that seasonality is even a factor for COVID-19, which is far from certain. A change of season might provide a temporary respite for some countries, but that's not the same as the pandemic fizzling out.

I'm projecting the same level of likelihood (not certainty) as one of the experts in coronaviruses (not just general expert in epidemiology)

Third of third of common colds are caused by coronaviruses and they they show clear seasonal pattern (SARS don't because it's mostly human-animal transmitted). You can't say for certain that it's the case for this virus but it's very likely.

Not only can I not find a source corroborating your statement by John Nicholls beyond this forwarded email of a transcript of a call that allegedly happened weeks ago, but what you stated ("This virus will burn itself out in May when temperatures rise.") is not even an alleged quote from him. It's a summary by the person who typed this up. The closest thing Nicholls (allegedly) said is this:

In regards to temperature, the virus can remain intact at 4 degrees or 10 degrees for a longer period of time. But at 30 degrees then you get inactivation. And High humidity the virus doesn’t like it either. That’s why I think Sars stopped around May and June in 2003 – that’s when there’s more sunlight and more humidity. The environment is a crucial factor. The environment will be unfavourable for growth around May. The evidence is to look at the common cold – it’s always during winter. So the natural environment will not be favourable in Asia in about May.

Totally different from "it will burn itself out by May", which multiple experts across multiple fields increasingly consider uncertain at best.

Singapore is literally touching the equator, and the coronavirus there keeps spreading. Local transmission has outnumbered imported cases a while ago. Temperature & humidity really isn't going to help.

> Singapore is literally touching the equator, and the coronavirus there keeps spreading.

Most Singapore buildings and its public transport system are fully A/C.

"The coronavirus there keeps spreading" is technically true, but we're talking about 1-3 confirmed cases a day, and an absurd number of people who have been served quarantine/stay-at-home orders.

transmission curves for MERS and SARS are looking scary.

We're still Feb.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Middle_East_respiratory_syndro...

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Severe_acute_respiratory_syndr...

Actually the curve for SARS supports decline in hot sunny seasons.

both curves do, but we're still at least 2 months away :-(

That’s not soon enough of a resolution to avoid affecting the games, I’m afraid.

Yeah its pretty wild to compare the rates of infection and mortality inside main land china with the rest of the world. The high infection/death rates aren't showing up in the rest of the world. The interesting follow question is why?

It could be a number of things, my guess is a sampling issue. Given how secretive the Chinese govt is we'll likely never know.

You're grossly misinformed. The China outbreak was so strong initially because they had no idea what they were dealing with. The spread and infection is invisible for weeks. There are many people spreading Coronavirus as we speak without knowing a thing.

Korea, Iran and Italy all have major outbreaks which only revealed themselves this week, but likely began 2-3 weeks prior. Iran has clearly no idea how many cases are in its country, its numbers are 15 deaths and <100 cases. That's over 15% death rate. Makes no sense compared to all other reported number, their real total cases are likely over 1000.

The mortality rate in Italy is roughly the same as China. I think it is too early to make this claim. https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.h...?

It's because 14 days incubation time. It will take 14 days until number start to pick up from the initial infection in new area.

It also depends if there is a space available hospital --- overflown hospitals (as in Wuhan) will make numbers grow much quicker.

There have been nearly 300 new cases in South Korea in the last day. Give it time buddy.