A side project I'm working on uses a key component from a Chinese manufacturer. Their factory has been shut indefinitely and we are 40 days behind schedule. My rep told me that while they've been working on the marketing/tech side of things from home, the factory can't open since workers are simply refusing to show up, and neither coercion or incentives seem to help.
The only real uncertainty at this point is if the HN/reddit fever-dream scenario of overwhelmed hospitals plays out, outside of Wuhan.
So far, it has not.
Those of you thinking "oh I'm a healthy young person I'm just gonna carry on doing what I'm doing" is gonna be in for a rude awakening.
Can't find exactly where I read it but it's e.g. mentioned here: https://www.statnews.com/2020/02/04/two-scenarios-if-new-cor...
> The fact that patients not displaying symptoms are able to transmit the coronavirus indicates something alarming. As typically such respiratory viruses are normally transmitted thru the mouth via coughing in which minute droplets are exposed or thru the nose when the nasal fluids are released through sneezing or blowing of the nose.
> If a person is not showing any symptoms, then the only possible means is through the exhaled air of the infected individual, which implies that the virus is an extremely potent airborne pathogen.
People who aren't sick still cough/sneeze/blow their nose sometimes. (Especially so in the case of people with allergies, but everyone does it a bit.)
And surely people could transmit the disease through saliva (or other fluids) spread via their hands. People touch their face, pick their teeth, eat with their hands, pick their nose, bite their nails, etc. etc.
Then there is the possibility of transmission through shared meals, or even inadequately washed cutlery etc.
Don't get me wrong, asymptomatic spread is scary, and it probably provides some evidence in favour of airborne transmission. But I don't see how they can make such an absolute statement, when there seem to be other available explanations.
I know, and I thought that was what we were discussing: how strong is the evidence for airborne transmission.
> How do you expect asymptomatic infected individuals to spread the virus?
I gave a bunch of possibilities in my previous reply.
> The viral load is highest in the nose
Higher in the nose than the throat, according to the Medpagetoday article, but that doesn't imply it is absent from the throat -- rather the opposite, otherwise they would have phrased it differently. And people do pick and blow their noses, and sneeze occasionally even when healthy, so it's not like breathing is the only possible route out of the nose. Not to mention the connectedness of nose and throat, which makes it hard for me to imagine a virus being present in the nose but reliably absent from saliva.
I'm not arguing that airborne transmission is unlikely -- I don't know, and am trying to form an opinion. Which is why I'm questioning the argument that it is definitely happening, and responsible for all asymptomatic contagion: it seems overstated to me, but if I'm missing key background facts, I'd like to learn them.
Treatment protocols at UCD Medical Center mentions airborne precautions after the patient tested positive.
Airborne transmission was also seen in China.
https://mobile.twitter.com/farnazfassihi/status/123245395758...
The good news is the virus is not too risky for an individual, excepting those who are old and with pre-existing conditions. The bad news is that there will likely be a lot of deaths in aggregate, globally. The other bad news is that the virus has been highly disruptive socially and economically in every country when the infection rate has started to climb.
The best we can do is calmly make preparations for how things will change.