Re:Coronavirus outbreak likely now ‘gathering steam’
by Anon84 on Tuesday February 11, 2020 @08:50PM
(#22305001)
Can you point me to your review?
A few years ago (circa 2010 or so) when I was seriously working on epidemic modeling, we tried to look for an effective seasonality model, based on temperature, humidity, etc that worked globally and failed miserably. What seemed to work in one country or area failed completely in others, and vice versa. I'm curious to see if things have improved since then
Re:Coronavirus outbreak likely now ‘gathering steam’
by Fomite on Tuesday February 11, 2020 @09:05PM
(#22305091)
It's an older paper (circa 2006) but...to be honest, I revisit it occasionally, and the problems we point out are still there. https://jvi.asm.org/content/81/11/5429
Re:Coronavirus outbreak likely now ‘gathering steam’
by Anon84 on Tuesday February 11, 2020 @09:47PM
(#22305272)
Ahahahahah... HN really is a small world. I remember this paper. The section on “indoor heating and AC” stuck to my memory to this day. Back then we were hoping for a seasonality-based follow up to this paper: https://www.pnas.org/content/106/51/21484 but it was not meant to be.
Re:Coronavirus outbreak likely now ‘gathering steam’
by Fomite on Tuesday February 11, 2020 @11:57PM
(#22305921)
Seasonality is a...vexing problem. It seems to straight forward, and then...
Re:Coronavirus outbreak likely now ‘gathering steam’
by gniv on Tuesday February 11, 2020 @08:28PM
(#22304870)
> Having written a review on the seasonality of influenza
Is one of the theories lack of Vitamin D?
- Right now, there's some ongoing research about R0 relative to humidity, and it's not promising. This includes Singapore, but it should also be noted that Singapore has an amazing public health system that will confound using it as an example in both directions.
- Having written a review on the seasonality of influenza, the fact of the matter is we have very little notion of why it's seasonal, and a lot of "just so" stories.