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A comment on Chip industry had worst sales year since dot-com bubble burst. Parent comment

Re:Chip industry had worst sales year since dot-com bubble b... by cbanek on Thursday February 06, 2020 @02:54PM (#22259659)
As someone who watches the financial news, it almost feels more like baseball statistics, where they say something like, "this batter on sunny days in April has an advantage against left-handed pitchers."

While it may be true, it feels more like p-hacking than some kind of useful fact.

I felt like the financial industry was really doing this early in 2019, after the huge drop in stocks, everyone was like the S&P is up 20% this year already (forgetting to mention it was down a huge amount in December and ready for a comeback).

Of course how you frame these numbers and which numbers you pick is part of the reporting. When taking numbers of out of context, I think it can get a little sensationalist.

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Re:Chip industry had worst sales year since dot-com bubble b... by c256 on Thursday February 06, 2020 @07:47PM (#22262115)
> As someone who watches the financial news, it almost feels more like baseball statistics...

If you hear a loud banging noise, don’t buy?

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Re:Chip industry had worst sales year since dot-com bubble b... by snoshy on Thursday February 06, 2020 @10:48PM (#22263063)
GP's point is that someone predicting a bang based on increasingly obscure and cherry-picked data does not in fact reliably predict a real bang in the future.
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Re:Chip industry had worst sales year since dot-com bubble b... by smabie on Thursday February 06, 2020 @07:47PM (#22262123)
According to EMH, all information is subsumed into the price. As such, how could the huge 2018 Christmas drop affect future returns?
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Re:Chip industry had worst sales year since dot-com bubble b... by perl4ever on Thursday February 06, 2020 @11:41PM (#22263277)
How could there be a huge temporary drop, with your view of the EMH? The fundamentals can't have changed that much. If they did change that much, and the market absorbed new information, then the price wouldn't have come back. The only way you can retain a belief that the price is "correct" is by imagining there are invisible error bars somewhat bigger than the size of the fluctuation.
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Re:Chip industry had worst sales year since dot-com bubble b... by barbecue_sauce on Thursday February 06, 2020 @10:10PM (#22262911)
Maybe EMH isn't correct?
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Re:Chip industry had worst sales year since dot-com bubble b... by VHRanger on Friday February 07, 2020 @09:11AM (#22266047)
Statistically it's not incorrect.

While you should be skeptical of strong forms of the EMH, all evidence points to weak forms of the EMH being true.

A corrolary that is good to keep in mind is "markets are more efficient than you're smart" -- prevents you from starting doomed financial enterprises

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Re:Chip industry had worst sales year since dot-com bubble b... by hamilyon2 on Friday February 07, 2020 @01:13AM (#22263638)
Weak forms of EMH are almost certainty correct. If they were not, you could beat passive investing with relatively little work, and that is impossible.
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