Re:New coronavirus can spread between humans, but started in...
by moulei on Saturday January 25, 2020 @01:33PM
(#22147762)
https://amp.businessinsider.com/wuhan-coronavirus-people-chi...
"Wuhan's party secretary and governor cannot soothe the people's anger"
Faith is losing but but only the local governments. The vast majority of ordinary people still believe that the central government is being hoodwinked by local governments, and taking their anger on them. They still trust the central government would be responsible for them. It's ridiculous, but it's true.
Re:New coronavirus can spread between humans, but started in...
by powerfoolx on Saturday January 25, 2020 @02:52PM
(#22148254)
It's not only thousand cases and a few dozen deaths. It's over a thousand cases over a few days of development from over a dozen. Learn your math, dude, especially on exponential growth. That multiply dangerously fast. Besides the confirmed cases, there would be at least few times more suspected cases, which could easily overload a handful of well-equipped hospitals. Once the the number of those infected go well beyond the capacity of the local hospitals. It will be the beginning of a an unstoppable disaster. So again, learn how exponential growth works.
Re:New coronavirus can spread between humans, but started in...
by tunesmith on Saturday January 25, 2020 @04:39PM
(#22148790)
This is what R0 measures. So far the estimates are in the 1.5 - 4 range. For comparison, in an unvaccinated population, measles is in the 12-16 range. It's early stages, though - due to the latency/carrier thing, they're not really sure, and in Wuhan, the R0 number is going to be higher than it would be for worldwide average.
The most important factor during public health crises isn't common sense, it's trust. The quarantines are worthless if they cause over 50 million people to go into a panic because they don't trust the central authorities.
The predominant commentary I'm seeing coming from both sides of the Pacific is currently "what are they not telling us? why shut down several cities during CNY if its only a thousand cases and a few dozen deaths?" Large quarantines are high risk and I doubt even the CDC, which has spent decades cultivating trust, could pull one off. If people start hiding symptoms and avoiding medical care because of the lockdown, this whole situation could spiral way out of control globally.