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Re:Satellite Photos Reveal Extent of Damage from Iranian Str... by lm28469 on Wednesday January 08, 2020 @11:39AM (#21992978)
Are these Iranian missiles supposed to be extremely accurate or is the lack of deaths pure luck ?
Re:Satellite Photos Reveal Extent of Damage from Iranian Str... by jeffchuber on Wednesday January 08, 2020 @11:52AM (#21993148)
I dont think Iran wanted to kill any Americans. They knew that this strike helped them save face. Killing soldiers would have risked an escalation. The US also did not try to stop the missiles to allow the slap in in the face to happen. The US wanted to let them save face.
Re:Satellite Photos Reveal Extent of Damage from Iranian Str... by cronix on Wednesday January 08, 2020 @12:39PM (#21993733)
We also had advanced warning, as did the Iraqis. They even knew the timing. I'm sure we moved troops out of harms way. Iran's not just going to lob some missiles into a foreign country without first telling them, because they (Iraq) weren't the target. We picked up on that chatter and/or the host country informed us after they knew.
Re:Satellite Photos Reveal Extent of Damage from Iranian Str... by Fjolsvith on Thursday January 09, 2020 @08:29AM (#22000983)
Back channels are important.
Re:Satellite Photos Reveal Extent of Damage from Iranian Str... by jeffchuber on Friday January 17, 2020 @07:03PM (#22081042)
100%

back channels are very effective and should be embraced in business and politics

Re:Satellite Photos Reveal Extent of Damage from Iranian Str... by lawlessone on Wednesday January 08, 2020 @12:23PM (#21993542)
i really hope you're right and this deescalates.
Re:Satellite Photos Reveal Extent of Damage from Iranian Str... by jeffchuber on Friday January 17, 2020 @07:02PM (#22081039)
it did
Re:Satellite Photos Reveal Extent of Damage from Iranian Str... by jannes on Wednesday January 08, 2020 @11:42AM (#21993013)
The personnel apparently had an advance warning and took shelter. The Iraq government was informed in advance of the attack on their soil and passed it on to the foreign military stationed in their country.
Re:Satellite Photos Reveal Extent of Damage from Iranian Str... by fooey on Wednesday January 08, 2020 @11:44AM (#21993052)
It wasn't luck. Iran has a very modern and capable military, ranked above countries like Canada and Australia in strength.

https://www.globalfirepower.com/countries-listing.asp

Re:Satellite Photos Reveal Extent of Damage from Iranian Str... by Jamwinner on Wednesday January 08, 2020 @11:52AM (#21993149)
As far as full military, sure. But their rudimentary guided srbm's are not the best by any measure. Their best still use infrared or standard gps for guidance. That is early 90s tech by american standards.

Edit: wiki shows even lower tech ballistic style electromechanical guidance on their page. Thats 1960s tech.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fateh-313

Re:Satellite Photos Reveal Extent of Damage from Iranian Str... by Seenso on Wednesday January 08, 2020 @02:39PM (#21994931)
> As far as full military, sure. But their rudimentary guided srbm's are not the best by any measure. Their best still use infrared or standard gps for guidance. That is early 90s tech by american standards.

> Edit: wiki shows even lower tech ballistic style electromechanical guidance on their page. Thats 1960s tech.

The US still fields missiles with "1960s tech":

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/LGM-30_Minuteman#Minuteman-III...

I'm not so quick to dismiss these Iranian missiles. They seem to be accurate and able to effectively perform the job they were meant to do. It's a mistake to classify military technology as lower=worse/higher=better like it's a tech tree from a videogame. Inertial navigation systems like these missiles seem to have are actually superior to GPS in many circumstances that are relevant here. Yes, they drift, but that's not a huge issue over a short flight time. More importantly, they're self-contained, jam-proof, and don't rely on a service provided by an adversary.

Re:Satellite Photos Reveal Extent of Damage from Iranian Str... by mywittyname on Wednesday January 08, 2020 @03:17PM (#21995316)
By the 1960s, contemporary military capabilities were such that wiping out all of humanity was possible. It's absolutely unwise to dismiss old military tech.
Re:Satellite Photos Reveal Extent of Damage from Iranian Str... by jackpirate on Wednesday January 08, 2020 @12:07PM (#21993341)
Who cares what decade the tech is from?

Those missiles landed dead-center on buildings. (Seriously, look at the images!) This demonstrates an impressive operational capability to select which targets to destroy.

Re:Satellite Photos Reveal Extent of Damage from Iranian Str... by pjc50 on Wednesday January 08, 2020 @12:12PM (#21993393)
... assuming that the publicly available information on Wikipedia is accurate?

https://missiledefenseadvocacy.org/missile-threat-and-prolif... claims "GPS/unknown"

https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/iransource/iran-s-ball... "improved the precision of the Fateh-110 guidance system, which uses both INS and Global Positioning Satellite (GPS) with a projected CEP of 250 m."

Re:Satellite Photos Reveal Extent of Damage from Iranian Str... by sswaner on Wednesday January 08, 2020 @12:53PM (#21993883)
I could not see any impact/blast marks in empty areas. If they missed, they missed wide of this photo. Every blast mark looked like it hit something. Especially the one that hit a hanger looks like it destroyed an airplane, probably a C-130?
Re:Satellite Photos Reveal Extent of Damage from Iranian Str... by coldcode on Wednesday January 08, 2020 @12:15PM (#21993426)
The retired general who was Central Command leader at one point said their missile tech has become highly improved in the past few years. Here they missed on purpose.
Re:Satellite Photos Reveal Extent of Damage from Iranian Str... by option_greek on Wednesday January 08, 2020 @12:03PM (#21993287)
Since its a surface to surface missile, does it really matter ? :)
Re:Satellite Photos Reveal Extent of Damage from Iranian Str... by adventured on Wednesday January 08, 2020 @11:58AM (#21993228)
> Iran has a very modern and capable military

Iran has a very backwards military with almost no air force and no serious navy power at all.

The few planes they have are mostly ancient and their navy consists of speed boats.

They have a thousand tanks that are a mixture of ancient and more modern tanks with medium capability compared to the US.

They have a large standing army that is moderately well trained, with some large elite forces, and they have good ballistic missile capabilities. They have almost zero ability to properly defend their territory from the US when it comes to air strikes. They have almost no ability to keep up a foreign strike outside of their borders, with their ballistic missile stockpile being their sole means. Basically they have almost no ability to sustain foreign strike capability via their military. Outside their borders they have numerous proxy terrorist organizations they fund persistently for asymmetric warfare.

That's all they have. They're an impotent military after decades of sanctions and grinding poverty. In a war context that of course doesn't mean the US would find invading to be easy (it would be a disaster), it means the US strategy would properly be to sit outside of their borders and destroy everything inside of Iran and never invade; acquire air dominance (would take one or two weeks max), and continue wiping out all infrastructure and military capabilities as needed.

Re:Satellite Photos Reveal Extent of Damage from Iranian Str... by Spoppys on Wednesday January 08, 2020 @12:10PM (#21993374)
Iran's military has been very intelligently shaped to maximise its ability with limited resources against the threats it's most liable to face.

If Iran had focused on developing the best tank force or air force possible, would it make a difference? No, Iran's most likely enemies are either the US or a country supplied by the US and the best Iran could produce would still fall short. They would certainly lose a conventional war.

So Iran has focused on developing asymmetric warfare capabilities. Their very large infantry and special forces mean any invading force will have an extreme insurgency problem to deal with, which could keep any enemy bogged down in a bloody and expensive war for literally decades. And their ballistic missile force can target important economic, military command or political targets, adding another significant deterrence.

Re:Satellite Photos Reveal Extent of Damage from Iranian Str... by mcguire on Wednesday January 08, 2020 @12:41PM (#21993767)
"Iran has a very backwards military with almost no air force and no serious navy power at all."

Iran has been developing a variety of land-based anti-ship ballistic and cruise missiles. Given that their naval interests are limited to the Persian Gulf, the Strait of Hormuz, and the Sea of Oman (and the Caspian), that's probably enough naval power. Your air strikes are going to have to track down mobile launchers.

Re:Satellite Photos Reveal Extent of Damage from Iranian Str... by Seenso on Wednesday January 08, 2020 @03:03PM (#21995168)
> and their navy consists of speed boats.

> and they have good ballistic missile capabilities

That's not a bad resource mix to potentially defeat the US Navy using asymmetric tactics:

https://www.popularmechanics.com/military/a30392654/millenni...

>> Once U.S. forces were within range, Van Riper’s forces unleashed a barrage of missiles from ground-based launchers, commercial ships, and planes flying low and without radio communications to reduce their radar signature. Simultaneously, swarms of speedboats loaded with explosives launched kamikaze attacks. The carrier battle group’s Aegis radar system—which tracks and attempts to intercept incoming missiles—was quickly overwhelmed, and 19 U.S. ships were sunk, including the carrier, several cruisers, and five amphibious ships. “The whole thing was over in five, maybe ten minutes,” Van Riper said.

> The problem? U.S. forces had expected Van Riper to sit back and come under attack, and then to launch a counterattack with his surviving forces, which could be easily brushed aside. Van Riper, who actually wanted to win the exercise, refused to sit on his hands and let the Americans attack first.

Re:Satellite Photos Reveal Extent of Damage from Iranian Str... by DuskStar on Wednesday January 08, 2020 @08:48PM (#21997741)
I'm a big fan of Naval Gazing, which has an article on that exercise: https://www.navalgazing.net/Millennium-Challenge-2002

As you might guess, it has a slightly different view of what went down, and how representative it would be of a real conflict.

One of the most glaring issues in your quote is this:

> The carrier battle group’s Aegis radar system—which tracks and attempts to intercept incoming missiles—was quickly overwhelmed

This wasn't actually the Aegis radar that was overwhelmed, it was the system to simulate an Aegis radar for the purposes of an exercise. Actual Aegis systems don't seem to have the same problem.

Re:Satellite Photos Reveal Extent of Damage from Iranian Str... by iNate2000 on Wednesday January 08, 2020 @11:42AM (#21993006)
Wild speculation on my part: High-alert status allowed enough warning for effective evacuation.
Re:Satellite Photos Reveal Extent of Damage from Iranian Str... by Someone1234 on Wednesday January 08, 2020 @11:44AM (#21993044)
The US knew it was coming. They evacuated/bunkered down ahead of the launch.
Re:Satellite Photos Reveal Extent of Damage from Iranian Str... by ceejayoz on Wednesday January 08, 2020 @11:43AM (#21993028)
Missiles show up on radar (and people near the launch sites posted video of them taking off, too), and military bases have hardened shelters for staff and critical equipment.
Re:Satellite Photos Reveal Extent of Damage from Iranian Str... by pjc50 on Wednesday January 08, 2020 @12:00PM (#21993253)
The previous probably-Iranian strike on Aramco also had no casualties. There is some suggestion that this is deliberate.
Re:Satellite Photos Reveal Extent of Damage from Iranian Str... by peer2pay on Wednesday January 08, 2020 @11:45AM (#21993070)
The article also explicitly states that aircraft storage buildings were targeted over buildings with people inside.
Re:Satellite Photos Reveal Extent of Damage from Iranian Str... by rjtavares on Wednesday January 08, 2020 @11:48AM (#21993099)
That's not what the article says:

> "There are other structures at the air base that would be exclusively for people so maybe they intended to strike sites with equipment over people."

Maybe being a key word here.

Re:Satellite Photos Reveal Extent of Damage from Iranian Str... by peer2pay on Wednesday January 08, 2020 @12:09PM (#21993367)
Let's not speculate about intent. Fact is that structures holding equipment rather than structures holding people were struck. This explains the lack of casualties
Re:Satellite Photos Reveal Extent of Damage from Iranian Str... by rjtavares on Wednesday January 08, 2020 @12:28PM (#21993607)
You used the word "targeted". Target implies intent:

target /ˈtɑːɡɪt/ noun 1. a person, object, or place selected as the aim of an attack.

Re:Satellite Photos Reveal Extent of Damage from Iranian Str... by detritus on Wednesday January 08, 2020 @12:36PM (#21993706)
That sounds to me like a serious over-estimation of the capability and accuracy of these sort of ballistic missiles.
Re:Satellite Photos Reveal Extent of Damage from Iranian Str... by peterwwillis on Wednesday January 08, 2020 @11:55AM (#21993185)
This is a "proportional response". They pick highly-rated but abandoned targets, because they have to respond, but don't want to escalate. From the show West Wing: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rtrX9rZl-j4