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Re:U.S. Goods Trade Deficit Declines to Smallest in Three Years by mooreds on Tuesday December 31, 2019 @09:39PM (#21926303)
> However, without this trade deficit, US dollar will start declining as the major reserve currency.

Not to mention that there is no other currency out there to be the global reserve currency.

The euro? No thanks say the Germans, who want to continue to run trade surpluses.

The yuan? No thanks say the Chinese, who want to control their exchange rate.

The yen? See the euro.

Sdrs? Not sure how a basket of currencies with no central bank to manage crises is a good solution.

The pound? Thanks, but we have enough issues right now, bugger off.

Any other currency? The market isn't big enough.

Re:U.S. Goods Trade Deficit Declines to Smallest in Three Years by nine_zeros on Tuesday December 31, 2019 @10:20PM (#21926446)
> Not to mention that there is no other currency out there to be the global reserve currency.

This is accurate. However, let's not fool ourselves. Having a single large reserve currency is not the only trading solution out there.

Most countries in close proximity, like south east asian countries for example, can easily trade in their local currencies. In fact, the more that China becomes the biggest importer of goods in Asia, the more irrelevant the dollar would become.

Re:U.S. Goods Trade Deficit Declines to Smallest in Three Years by mooreds on Wednesday January 01, 2020 @08:59AM (#21928028)
This is a strong argument. Do we need one global reserve currency, especially as we retreat from a global trading system? (Or at least from a global trading regulator, the WTO.)

For more on that, this is an excellent read:

https://www.worldcat.org/title/absent-superpower-the-shale-r...

Re:U.S. Goods Trade Deficit Declines to Smallest in Three Years by Tomte on Wednesday January 01, 2020 @05:47AM (#21927548)
> The euro? No thanks say the Germans,

Periodic reminder that contrary to forum wisdom, Germany cannot just do whatever it wants in Europe (and France will certainly see to that).

When it comes to monetary policy: the Governing Council of the ECB has 25 members, two of which are German.

Re:U.S. Goods Trade Deficit Declines to Smallest in Three Years by mooreds on Wednesday January 01, 2020 @08:58AM (#21928024)
Fair point. My understanding is that all members have veto power over EU decisions and that Germany, France, Italy, Poland and Spain are first among equals due to size. But that is focused on an understanding of the EU, not a detailed understanding of the ECB.

But I imagine aiming to be a reserve currency would be a political as well as a monetary decision.

Re:U.S. Goods Trade Deficit Declines to Smallest in Three Years by roenxi on Wednesday January 01, 2020 @01:50AM (#21926982)
Strictly speaking there is no need to have any reserve currency. Trade between two countries can happen directly and prices can be denominated locally.

In a true crisis scenario international trade can fall back to a fixed standard (gold, crypto, whatever) for settling things.

In practice though I'd be surprised if all those countries were really unhappy with their currencies becoming the reserve. Being the reserve creates demand for paper which can be exchanged for real goods - a substantial win for the creators of the currency.

One of the big reasons to use the US dollar as the global reserve is the US government exerts itself to make that happen. If they stopped, others would cheerfully fill the gap. The real point of resistance is replacing the SWIFT system.

Re:U.S. Goods Trade Deficit Declines to Smallest in Three Years by owenversteeg on Wednesday January 01, 2020 @01:15AM (#21926907)
I get the idea the British would absolutely love it if the pound became the global reserve currency. Especially since a lot of people would really like it if it appreciated in value again after its serious Brexit drop.
Re:U.S. Goods Trade Deficit Declines to Smallest in Three Years by mooreds on Wednesday January 01, 2020 @08:54AM (#21928006)
This article talks about some of the costs of becoming a reserve currency:

"...I do not think that the role of the dollar provides for the US any “exorbitant privilege”, contrary to what many suppose. Rather, I have argued, it creates an exorbitant burden for the US economy, one that forces the US to choose between higher debt and higher unemployment whenever a country takes steps to force up its savings rate or, which is pretty much the same thing, to force up its current account surplus." https://carnegieendowment.org/2012/11/17/is-there-asian-rmb-...