But that might also price out plenty of much better uses for helium as well if they are less funded than those with recreational demand. A market is not always a good way to allocate resources, especially in cases like this where the use cases are so wildly different in utility

I'm not talking about price. I'm strictly referring to:

"Helium production is a byproduct of natural gas production. If we're not running out of natural gas we're not running out of helium."

You can't speak about Supply (running out) without factoring in Demand & Price. They are all linked together. Especially when the resource has recreational uses.