Its a biased population? Self-selecting? A track record may be 'somebody who was at the right place at the right time'. A track record of winning the lottery, for instance, doesn't mean squat.

A track record means, at bottom, that they had no disqualifying traits.

I agree, but also “no disqualifying traits” is more valuable than you are giving it credit for. If you want to use the scarce signals available to judge the prospects of a very new startup, biasing for founders with no disqualifying traits is probably not a bad start. There’s a reason YC, TechStars, etc all explicitly say they invest in founders more so than product ideas.

Sure. But the number of that kind of person, number in the thousands. Then hundreds of thousands.

Ironic you should pick winning the lottery, because it absolutely DOES mean squat. For instance, the only person I'm aware of with a "track record" of winning the lottery had a system to consistently win the lottery. Had you given your money to him you'd be rich.

https://www.inc.com/bill-murphy-jr/this-couple-found-a-math-...

The track record of Software startupers/leaders/influencers/whatever going Hardware, boasting with overconfidence before even starting, is abysmal.