I do think it's more accepted in traditional advertising that we just don't know how well it works. In digital advertising there is a grand illusion of measurement.
I spent 6 years working in ad-tech, and I was researching the incrementality effect of ads, selection bias and stuff like that for last 3 years. I want to let you know that your article is good. Online advertising is not a bubble, but your article perfectly explains why it is much harder than it seems.
In online advertising there are few people on the inside who think that non-brand advertising is a bubble. It just works too well, in too many places, and too many people are making money using it. It's reliable and effective, and those just aren't attributes associated with bubbles.
Yeah, attributing everything to the last-click isn't the best measurement in the world. But as pointed out elsewhere there are techniques to avoid it.
And there are enough direct-to-consumer brands which launch on Instagram and do nothing else to be able to see how effective it is.
"Irrational exuberance" is a famous quote about the 90s stock market/internet bubble, and it was in 1996, when the party was just getting started.
Some news sites make ads agreeable if it meshes well with the content (like NY Times and such).
The bottom line I think is that there’s too much competition for my attention and it gets exhausting unless the ads are really well thought out (original ideas) or subtle—in which case the probability of me seeing the ad is less, but the effectiveness most likely increases as its less like an ad and more like relevant content
Most of the people I grew up with today know that it’s Miller time, that sometimes you feel like a nut, sometimes you don’t, or that coke is the real thing. They learned that from TV.
Online ads? They don’t trigger anything for me. They either need to deliver information contextually, deliver preferred placement for something I’m already looking for, or be deceptive.
True. I acknowledge here that anecdote is not a synonym for data, but I will offer that despite those phrases having been seared into my brain for most of my life, I don't actually drink Miller, eat Almond Joy or Mounds, or drink Coke.
Ad quality these days has gone down for sure. Everything is formulaic and established and safe, yet nearly every major ad over the course of advertisement history was major because it was the opposite of these. I guess quantity has gone up to compensate.
To burst a bubble, you don't have to show them something that works better, you just have to convince them to stop drastically overpaying for what they've been buying.
There's no digital marketing bubble more than there is a traditional advertising bubble. There IS however a conflict of interest in advertising that's caused by the agency which performs the advertising being tasked with showing a return on investment.