Re:Robinhood Traders Discovered a Glitch That Gave Them ‘Inf...
by perl4ever on Wednesday November 06, 2019 @11:44PM
(#21470462)
I spent some time thinking about leverage and margin, and my thinking was
- I don't want to invest on margin unless the interest rate is significantly lower than stocks generally return
- as a rule of thumb, 7% is a conservative estimate for stocks in the long run, while a typical broker charges close to 10%. So it seemed like a non starter.
- however, it is possible to find rates as low as 3-4%, so then the question becomes how much leverage to use?
- my logic was, what kind of drawdown is plausible if you invest at a market peak? It appears based on known history that -70% could happen. Therefore it would be best to limit leverage so that more than a 70% decline would be needed to cause a margin call.
- which seems to lead to borrowing no more than 25-27% of one's equity.
Banks are a little different and while the rules are complicated, big banks need to have around 3% of their total book at hand. Or in otherwords, they have around 33x leverage. Because of the leverage, banks need a very diversified uncorrelated portfolio in order to reduce volatility. No bank would stuff all of their money into equities, the risk of ruin is too high.
Also, there’s another perspective to look at your question: the efficient market hypothesis. In short, EMH states that in general, all investments have the same or trend toward the same risk/reward profile. That is, the ratio or slope of the returns vs volatility should be the same. With debt/credit, there are two primary options: you get paid back with interest or you don’t (let’s ignore bankruptcy). With equities you are assuming a lot more risk, the stock could go up or down or whatever. Since you are assuming more risk with equities than credit, it would violate EMH if you weren’t compensated for the extra risk.
This however, doesn’t explain why equities perform so much better than everything else. This is called the equity premium puzzle [2].
So maybe you’re right? No one really knows. Maybe the jig will eventually be up? Or maybe not, no one really knows.
[1] https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Volatility_tax
[2] https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Equity_premium_puzzle