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Re:Steve Wozniak says he does not expect fully autonomous ca... by yumraj on Thursday October 24, 2019 @09:15PM (#21350873)
Car insurance: I had made a simplified argument, but to itemize, auto insurance may work the same for auto-theft and some liability coverage. But, it definitely cannot work the same for anything remotely related to driver (or in this case self-driving system's) fault.

Edge Cases: Humans use their brain and adapt. Self driving systems have no concept of adapting, hence the result is undefined.

> over 1.25 million deaths per year, and 50 million injuries in the US alone.

In US in 2016 there were 36,750 fatalities[0][1], so much much lower than the 1.25 million number you're using.

So, no, personally I will not prefer self-driving cars if they are not perfect due to the edge cases, and still cause 250k deaths / year

And the reason is simple, and why throwing statistics is now the right approach: I'd rather have my life in my hands and my driving where I can take a corrective defensive action than rely on an AI model where it is unpredictable when the lightning will strike and a bug/untrained edge case will kill me. I will prefer to be in control.

[0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Motor_vehicle_fatality_rate_in... [1] https://crashstats.nhtsa.dot.gov/Api/Public/ViewPublication/...

Re:Steve Wozniak says he does not expect fully autonomous ca... by aeternum on Friday October 25, 2019 @01:05AM (#21352060)
Thanks for the correction, the 1.25 million number is worldwide, not US https://www.asirt.org/safe-travel/road-safety-facts/

Self driving systems however do adapt. Most companies are using neural networks which can be retrained based on their mistakes. Unlike a human, they can also be trained on each and every crash for which sensor data is available.

Re:Steve Wozniak says he does not expect fully autonomous ca... by salawat on Friday October 25, 2019 @10:08AM (#21355076)
They cannot "adapt". Your "retraining" is not a trivial process. Attempts to accommodate edge cases are not guaranteed to be able to cleanly accommodate all previous cases without discontinuities/regression/overfitting. The consequences of which could be especially catastrophic given that every other vehicle that safely operates may be relying on a particular quirk of a particular version of the neural network's particular function which it is imitating to safely operate in it's particular environment.

That's the problem with NN's. You can't say anything about them explicitly except that they meet the specification for their training datasets. Fitness for a task outside of that is not guaranteed. Humans, on the other hand, are constantly adapting, because they never stop "learning". This has the inverse effect in that you can say that a person can be trained for a task, but at the moment may not be.

When you apply an NN on an industrial scale, you can't just throw it out there without being willing to accept the liability for the destruction you cause as a result.

Re:Steve Wozniak says he does not expect fully autonomous ca... by jdsully on Thursday October 24, 2019 @10:09PM (#21351186)
> But, it definitely cannot work the same for anything remotely related to driver (or in this case self-driving system's) fault.

Why not?

Re:Steve Wozniak says he does not expect fully autonomous ca... by yumraj on Thursday October 24, 2019 @11:13PM (#21351524)
Because I'm not the one driving the car, I'm merely sitting in it.

Think of it this way, do you take auto insurance for a cab ride, no you don't, because you're not driving it.

Re:Steve Wozniak says he does not expect fully autonomous ca... by jdsully on Thursday October 24, 2019 @11:41PM (#21351660)
That all depends on the contract with whatever service your using. It would be totally legal for the cab driver to make you sign a contract making you liable for any damages. I'd be very unlikely to sign for a cab ride, but I might if I had my own self driving car depending on how reliable they were.
Re:Steve Wozniak says he does not expect fully autonomous ca... by yumraj on Friday October 25, 2019 @12:02AM (#21351761)
Anything is possible.

My topmost comment said these are open questions, as in undefined.

I, as in IMHO, highly doubt it would be like you're describing, but it is equally likely that it may be like how you're describing, it's just an open question.

In fact, a couple of years ago there was a small event at Tim Draper's Draper University in San Mateo about how auto insurance would look in the world of self-driving cars and it was very clear that at least till that point there was no consensus. I haven't seen anything to suggest if that has changed since then.