Antarctic ice cliffs may not contribute to sea-level rise as much as predicted

Re:Antarctic ice cliffs may not contribute to sea-level rise... by chrisco255 on Monday October 21, 2019 @12:45PM (#21314368)

The addition of solar forcing to CMIP6 means that they completely missed it for the first 5 models, so the consensus was wrong. Science is driven by observation and experiment not by consensus.

We should not expect their first iteration to accurately model clouds, but at least they are factoring it in now. How much did consensus override the concerns about cloud cover during the formation of climate models over the last few decades? Consensus is just a fancy word for groupthink.

We should be asking how much more accurate do our models need to be in order to predict future climate?

There are cycles such as the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation that we still don't really know how to model with a high degree of accuracy. The AMO has dramatic effects on climate. So does the PDO.

We don't know how volcanic activity is going to play out over the 21st century.

We don't know how much cosmic ray flux will increase if we enter a prolonged solar minimum cycle like the Maunder Minimum.

There are a ton of factors that influence climate that our models don't account for.

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Re:Antarctic ice cliffs may not contribute to sea-level rise... by ceejayoz on Monday October 21, 2019 @01:03PM (#21314585)

Solar forcing was considered well before CMIP6. The idea that it was "completely missed" is false.

https://www.geosci-model-dev.net/10/2247/2017/

> We compare the climatic effects of the CMIP6 solar forcing dataset to its CMIP5 predecessor by using time-slice experiments of two chemistry–climate models and a reference radiative transfer model... This solar-cycle response is slightly larger, but not statistically significantly different from that for the CMIP5 forcing dataset.

We may not know the exact values of cosmic ray, volcanic, etc. inputs into the systems, but we can make reasonable conclusions about their high and low end values and the likely impacts that result. A quick Googling will reveal plenty of research on (and mentions in IPCC reports) the things you assert are being ignored.

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Re:Antarctic ice cliffs may not contribute to sea-level rise... by vfc1 on Monday October 21, 2019 @01:43PM (#21315056)

So going on 10 billion humans don't have anything to do with it? A large part of the habitable land covered in agricultural fields, polar caps melting, forecasts of 2 degrees increase in temperature by the end of the century, its just all a coincidence?

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