AFAIK, the US tight oil has nearly peaked (and they still aren't profitable !!), and I don't think that there's much additional production capacity left there, though higher prices will certainly help. (The depletion rate is just too great to sustain the production for long...)

I am indeed unsure (and a bit scared) about the potential from oil sands (and maybe shale oil = kerogen).

As you might know, peak oil is not about literally "running out of oil" (and the article I have linked expands on it), and my point is that we are in the very process of hitting peak (conventional+unconventional) oil - actually those attacks on Saudi oil infrastructure might mark this precise point... (or not, but we certainly don't have decades left...)

Ok, but we aren't currently in that process.

The potential oil production capacity of the world has massively increased, because of fracking.

And if oil prices go up, a whole lot of oil in the US and Canada , become immediately profitable to extract.

I think you are severely underestimating how much non conventional oil there is, that we could start extracting, if it became profitable.