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Re:Yield Curves Invert in U.S., U.K by tempguy9999 on Wednesday August 14, 2019 @12:47PM (#20697329)
Nicely put, but a real drunken master doesn't get repeatedly decked. Look at trump's financial record, that should have been quite enough (6 bankruptcies was it?)

Those who were fooled, were fooled because they chose to be.

Re:Yield Curves Invert in U.S., U.K by SkyBelow on Wednesday August 14, 2019 @12:55PM (#20697405)
Why should the number of bankruptcies matter if the person is still rich? It shows that they are using it as a tool, which might inform us we need to consider how bankruptcies work, but that doesn't make someone incompetent. If you want to see someone who is incompetent with money, look at lottery winners who within 5 years end up worse than before they won.
Re:Yield Curves Invert in U.S., U.K by WhompingWindows on Wednesday August 14, 2019 @03:55PM (#20699318)
1) There's little proof he was rich when he was running for President, he may well have been indebted to foreign powers at the time. The "under audit" story is clearly BS, what was he hiding?

2) His wealth was not created by himself, at any rate. He lied and said he inherited a small loan of a million, when in fact it was at least 2 orders of magnitude more than that. His father was the real smart businessman and his career has largely been failure upon failure.

3) He basically did win the lottery of being born to a wealthy father and squandered it all. How much did he squander is very hard to say when he himself covers up the details.

So yes, he is incompetent with money and business. He is competent with power, intimidation, and getting his way. That may have worked in the small pond of the 2016 election, but that is about the only place the man's been successful.

Re:Yield Curves Invert in U.S., U.K by blaser-waffle on Wednesday August 14, 2019 @02:53PM (#20698736)
Is he still rich? The fact that he still hasn't released his taxes raises a lot of questions.

Mark Cuban speculated that he wasn't a billionaire, and maybe not even a 500-millionaire. He talked big and pushed the brand, because that's all he had.

His main claim to fame, nearest I can tell, is a mix of poorly run real estate, reality TV, schlepping shit tier steaks, and his online university that got sued out of existence.

Re:Yield Curves Invert in U.S., U.K by duderific on Wednesday August 14, 2019 @05:22PM (#20700075)
He was all but done for before The Apprentice success. That allowed him to parlay his name into a few successful licensing agreements, which salvaged what would have otherwise been a complete collapse.
Re:Yield Curves Invert in U.S., U.K by hodder on Wednesday August 14, 2019 @03:22PM (#20698999)
I mean, 500 million is still pretty damn rich in my books. Sure he inherited it all, and has poorly managed the rest, but he is still rich by any normal person's metrics.
Re:Yield Curves Invert in U.S., U.K by pesmhey on Wednesday August 14, 2019 @01:03PM (#20697517)
The Russians bailed him out and he’s been in their pocket ever since. In this particular case, that’s why the number of bankruptcies matter.

In general, I agree with you.

Re:Yield Curves Invert in U.S., U.K by bduerst on Wednesday August 14, 2019 @01:41PM (#20697937)
Not sure why you're being downvoted, because you are correct. The president's repeated bankruptcies and inability to get a bank loan forced him to get funding from Russian oligarchs through Deutsche bank's private equity arm: https://www.wsj.com/articles/banks-give-documents-possibly-l...

There's a good Planet Money podcast on it as well: https://www.npr.org/2019/05/22/725893104/episode-914-trump-a...

It is also why the Trump family has preemptively sued Deutsche bank in an attempt to seal records and obstruct any investigation.

Re:Yield Curves Invert in U.S., U.K by fredophile on Wednesday August 14, 2019 @02:49PM (#20698693)
How rich is he really? There is a lot of evidence that he has a long history of inflating his wealth and achievements. Combine this with his refusal to disclose financial info and I think that provides plenty of reason to doubt his current claims.

Other tools he's used include hiring undocumented immigrants for construction and then not paying them and refusing to pay contractors that worked on his buildings. He maintains his wealth by making deals and then refusing to pay when the bill comes. The bankruptcies are just a part of this pattern of behaviour.

Re:Yield Curves Invert in U.S., U.K by jimmaswell on Wednesday August 14, 2019 @01:03PM (#20697512)
It's a bit different when someone is repeatedly bailed out by a richer parent.
Re:Yield Curves Invert in U.S., U.K by ethbro on Wednesday August 14, 2019 @01:37PM (#20697900)
How's that different than being repeatedly bailed out with VC money?
Re:Yield Curves Invert in U.S., U.K by bduerst on Wednesday August 14, 2019 @01:43PM (#20697969)
Nepotism vs. Meritocracy (or at least a rationalized investment)
Re:Yield Curves Invert in U.S., U.K by ethbro on Wednesday August 14, 2019 @01:50PM (#20698054)
The VC game seems a bit more... suspect than to clearly label it as a meritocracy. Particularly for serially bankrupt founders.
Re:Yield Curves Invert in U.S., U.K by bduerst on Wednesday August 14, 2019 @02:09PM (#20698279)
VC firms still rationalize it though. Also, how many serial bankrupt founders keep getting investments from the same VC?
Re:Yield Curves Invert in U.S., U.K by yourbandsucks on Wednesday August 14, 2019 @01:42PM (#20697947)
I don't think anyone's claiming that's something to aspire to either.
Re:Yield Curves Invert in U.S., U.K by xiphias2 on Wednesday August 14, 2019 @01:38PM (#20697911)
He used it as a tool, the companies became bankrupt, he got rich.

I imagine he will get rich even if U.S. goes through a bankrupcy.

Re:Yield Curves Invert in U.S., U.K by hedora on Wednesday August 14, 2019 @02:12PM (#20698320)
He didn’t “get” rich. He was born rich. He would have much more money today if he had passively invested it. The man is a managerial train wreck that’s been consistently burning untold wealth for 30+ years.

Much of what he has left was gotten by repeatedly breaking the law, and somehow only ending up with civil liability instead of criminal convictions.

Now he is actively wrecking the US economy and has somehow bullied the GOP into going along with it.

Re:Yield Curves Invert in U.S., U.K by throw0101a on Wednesday August 14, 2019 @02:28PM (#20698483)
> He didn’t “get” rich. He was born rich.

"If you want to be a Millionaire, start with a billion dollars and launch a new airline." -- https://en.wikiquote.org/wiki/Richard_Branson

If you start with a lot you can deplete much of it before you have only a little.

Re:Yield Curves Invert in U.S., U.K by duderific on Wednesday August 14, 2019 @05:24PM (#20700101)
"Somehow bullied" = the GOP is terrified of going against him, because his rabid base will drum anyone out of office who can be shown to be anti-Trump. After all, politicians' jobs are dependent on them getting elected.
Re:Yield Curves Invert in U.S., U.K by xiphias2 on Wednesday August 14, 2019 @02:26PM (#20698467)
I agree with you that passive investment would have got the same gains, but it's much easier to see in hindsight, it was not that easy to see beforehand.

He made money by burning other people and companies, but he came out quite well from it.

Re:Yield Curves Invert in U.S., U.K by throw0101a on Wednesday August 14, 2019 @02:32PM (#20698521)
Not being able to actively beat the market has been known since about 1973:

* https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/A_Random_Walk_Down_Wall_Street

Bogle started Vanguard in 1975:

* https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Vanguard_Group

* https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Index_fund#Origins

Re:Yield Curves Invert in U.S., U.K by usefulcat on Wednesday August 14, 2019 @03:08PM (#20698880)
"Known", yes, though probably not widely so. As I understand it, passive investing was generally considered a bad or at least risky idea at the time Vanguard was created.
Re:Yield Curves Invert in U.S., U.K by leereeves on Wednesday August 14, 2019 @03:09PM (#20698891)
He started 500 businesses, 6 went bankrupt.
Re:Yield Curves Invert in U.S., U.K by bduerst on Wednesday August 14, 2019 @03:57PM (#20699335)
It takes $100 and thirty minutes to start a business so that metric is useless. If anything, that many shell corps is suspect for money laundering, not business prowess.
Re:Yield Curves Invert in U.S., U.K by leereeves on Wednesday August 14, 2019 @06:33PM (#20700729)
Money laundering? Creating a corporation or LLC for each property is standard practice in the real estate business.

> ... usually, every investment property should be owned by a separate limited liability company that owns only one property and that is not engaged in any other business activity. The reason is simple: to maximize asset protection.

https://www.keytlaw.com/azllclaw/asset-protection/how-many-l...

And you really shouldn't go throwing around spurious accusations like that without any evidence.

Re:Yield Curves Invert in U.S., U.K by learc83 on Wednesday August 14, 2019 @07:09PM (#20700950)
>Creating a corporation or LLC for each property is standard practice in the real estate business.

So which is it? He started 500 businesses, or he has a few businesses that are made up of multiple properties.

I have friends with a few dozen rental properties, all in separate LLCs. I wouldn't say they "started 50 businesses".

Re:Yield Curves Invert in U.S., U.K by leereeves on Wednesday August 14, 2019 @07:31PM (#20701083)
You can't have it both ways; those 6 bankruptcies are just properties too.

So with your wording you should say Trump owned 500 properties and 6 of them lost money. And like any real estate investor, when the properties lost money, Trump gave those 6 properties to the creditors.

But I think my wording is more accurate. Your friend's rental properties may not be individual businesses, but Trump Tower or the Taj Mahal are.

Re:Yield Curves Invert in U.S., U.K by learc83 on Wednesday August 14, 2019 @11:09PM (#20702265)
Trump Tower and Taj Mahal are real businesses. But most of trumps "businesses" aren't. They are just shell companies to hold assets.

The vast majority of his businesses have no customers, and no regular income. They aren't intended to make a profit--they're intended to protect an asset from the bankruptcy of his real businesses. There was never any chance that they would need to go bankrupt, so he gets no credit for them not going bankrupt.

Re:Yield Curves Invert in U.S., U.K by leereeves on Thursday August 15, 2019 @05:04AM (#20703689)
> The vast majority of his businesses have no customers, and no regular income.

Where do you get this? Is this just more BS with no evidence, like the money laundering accusation?

I haven't seen a complete list, but even Wikipedia has a list with a lot of businesses:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Trump_Organization

> they're intended to protect an asset from the bankruptcy of his real businesses

Even if you were right about Trump's businesses, corporations don't work like that. The stock can be taken in bankruptcy so they don't protect assets inside the corp from bankruptcy of the holder. They only protect assets outside the corp from bankruptcy of the corp.

Re:Yield Curves Invert in U.S., U.K by kelnos on Wednesday August 14, 2019 @03:32PM (#20699087)
Assuming Trump still is fairly rich (even if it's a much smaller rich than Trump would like to project), the fact remains that he is just not a very good businessman, and that he has held onto whatever money he does have in spite of his business acumen, not because of it.

Put another way, if I were given $100M by my dad back in the 40+ years ago, and managed to grow it to, say, $500M by today, that would be nice, but I wouldn't consider myself "good with money". And it looks like the real figure for Trump may be north of $400M[0], which makes even $1B -- if he has that today -- look not all that impressive.

We're talking about the US President here, someone we should feel comfortable with influencing/managing the fate of trillions of dollars. Trump is not that guy.

[0] https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/10/02/us/politics/d...

Re:Yield Curves Invert in U.S., U.K by jacobolus on Wednesday August 14, 2019 @01:59PM (#20698170)
If a career grifter manages to skate free while leaving a heap of rubble behind, we should surely praise them for their ingenuity at extracting money from their workers, suppliers, investors, or customers. What mastery!
Re:Yield Curves Invert in U.S., U.K by starlust2 on Wednesday August 14, 2019 @02:06PM (#20698243)
Citation needed, and by that I mean his tax returns and financial statements.

The public at large does not know how much Trump is worth because he won't disclose much of anything.

Re:Yield Curves Invert in U.S., U.K by SkyBelow on Wednesday August 14, 2019 @02:12PM (#20698319)
If you want to play that game, then citation needed that he went bankrupt and I only take his tax returns and financial statements.

See how this level of discussion of not just demanding a citation, but then limiting what citations you accept to an extremely small set of documents isn't constructive?

Re:Yield Curves Invert in U.S., U.K by tempguy9999 on Wednesday August 14, 2019 @02:23PM (#20698430)
> If you want to play that game, then citation needed that he went bankrupt

It's a reasonable question, but 1 minute googling got this report https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/kendalltaggart/here-are... with 3 of them viz.

    The Trump Taj Mahal Casino

    Trump’s Plaza

    The Trump Castle
Are these at least sufficient to convince you?
Re:Yield Curves Invert in U.S., U.K by SkyBelow on Wednesday August 14, 2019 @03:59PM (#20699364)
You missed the part where I was (sarcastically) demanding the proof in a specific form that I know the reader doesn't have. It is one thing to say [citation needed]. It is quite another to say [citiation needed and by that I mean his tax returns and financial statements].
Re:Yield Curves Invert in U.S., U.K by tempguy9999 on Wednesday August 14, 2019 @04:44PM (#20699767)
Here's the original question "The public at large does not know how much Trump is worth because he won't disclose much of anything"

What evidence in your view, other than his his tax returns and financial statements, is there to show his wealth? Because that's fundamentally what's being requested. I don't think those exact documents are needed if there are good alternatives. Suggest some alternatives.

Re:Yield Curves Invert in U.S., U.K by SkyBelow on Thursday August 15, 2019 @09:20AM (#20704905)
You are quoting only half of the post, particularly the half I wasn't responding to. Try quoting the other half. Also my claim is that he is rich, not some exact measure or level of wealth.

>What evidence in your view, other than his his tax returns and financial statements, is there to show his wealth?

You really think that you need tax returns to prove he is currently wealthy? Is that a consistent standard you apply to everyone? When someone says that Bill Gates is rich, do you request the same level of documentation before you believe it? Are you doubting the relevance of other indicators of wealth such as lifestyle and property holdings?

Re:Yield Curves Invert in U.S., U.K by tempguy9999 on Thursday August 15, 2019 @09:53AM (#20705191)
You're being obtuse. Original comment:

> The public at large does not know how much Trump is worth

So this is about HOW MUCH he is worth. Hence the request for docs quantifying it.

Then I say

> Suggest some alternatives

And you just snowjob with questions in return. I asked a question. Please answer it by stating what publicly available docs will show trump's wealth.

> Are you doubting the relevance of other indicators of wealth such as lifestyle and property holdings?

Irrelevant.

We want to know how much so as to judge his competency at business. Please answer, what public documents will show his wealth.

Also why are you so willing to assume he is a competent businessman without actual, audited financial evidence to back up his claims?

Re:Yield Curves Invert in U.S., U.K by tempguy9999 on Wednesday August 14, 2019 @01:03PM (#20697508)
I presume he became less rich by becoming bankrupt rather than more?

If he could have been richer by not being bankrupt then that would indicate competence to me.

Also daddy gave him $435 million IIRC. If everyone on HN had got that I suspect most of us would have done better.

Re:Yield Curves Invert in U.S., U.K by CamperBob2 on Wednesday August 14, 2019 @05:00PM (#20699905)
Why should the number of bankruptcies matter if the person is still rich?

Because money laundering is illegal?

Re:Yield Curves Invert in U.S., U.K by munificent on Wednesday August 14, 2019 @02:12PM (#20698317)
> Why should the number of bankruptcies matter if the person is still rich?

If.

Did Trump ever put more effort into anything in his campaign and Presidency than he put into preventing his tax returns from getting out?

Re:Yield Curves Invert in U.S., U.K by SkyBelow on Wednesday August 14, 2019 @02:15PM (#20698348)
Even if he is a lot poorer than he claims, he is still rich compared to what we normally consider rich vs poor. I'm not sure why we would suddenly change the baseline in this particular case.

If you want to claim he isn't as rich as he claims, then then I'm not disputing that at all (I haven't a clue), but to claim he isn't rich does not align with existing evidence without fiddling with how we define rich and poor in ways we don't otherwise fiddle with such definitions.

Re:Yield Curves Invert in U.S., U.K by DocSavage on Wednesday August 14, 2019 @03:22PM (#20698998)
The whole thread follows from a comment that the number of bankruptcies doesn't matter if he's rich. The point is not that he's rich. It's whether he's increased or decreased the fortune he was given. If he's given $413 million and now has less than that, he's not a good business man. Since we are blocked from all his finances, we don't know where he stands now, but the multiple bankruptcies and NYTimes investigation suggests he's not accumulated wealth more than spent it. https://www.nytimes.com/2018/10/02/us/politics/donald-trump-...
Re:Yield Curves Invert in U.S., U.K by munificent on Wednesday August 14, 2019 @03:15PM (#20698931)
Whether or not he is rich tells you little unless you subtract out the effect of all of his inherited wealth.

Having, say $300 million sounds like a lot. But if you inherited $700 million (as Trump likely did), having only $300 left today is a catastrophic failure.

Re:Yield Curves Invert in U.S., U.K by tzakrajs on Wednesday August 14, 2019 @02:06PM (#20698257)
Because he's a grifter who profits from other peoples losses.
Re:Yield Curves Invert in U.S., U.K by shitgoose on Wednesday August 14, 2019 @03:16PM (#20698939)
just 6 bankruptcies? that is pretty good rate for the number of businesses he started.
Re:Yield Curves Invert in U.S., U.K by asdf21 on Wednesday August 14, 2019 @12:58PM (#20697445)
There are strategic bankruptcies..
Re:Yield Curves Invert in U.S., U.K by tempguy9999 on Wednesday August 14, 2019 @01:09PM (#20697576)
Serious question: how do these work, and can you actually make money off. or can you only limit cash losses with them?
Re:Yield Curves Invert in U.S., U.K by bduerst on Wednesday August 14, 2019 @04:31PM (#20699626)
Only as a last ditch attempt to preserve some business assets and wipe out debt, after exhausting all other options to raise cash, improve sales, refinance, issue equity, restructure, or other normal business operations to keep the company operating.

And no, those six bankruptcies were not strategic, they were failures to operate a business. One bankruptcy is strategic, two a coincidence, six a signal of incompetence. The sheer number of shell corps he's founded and thousands of civil court cases points to exploiting investors through shady practices.

Re:Yield Curves Invert in U.S., U.K by basementcat on Wednesday August 14, 2019 @02:31PM (#20698518)
One strategy might be to start with a number of business entities; move "troubled assets" of all entities into a single entity and have that entity declare bankruptcy.
Re:Yield Curves Invert in U.S., U.K by asdf21 on Wednesday August 14, 2019 @05:57PM (#20700424)
You have multiple businesses, and sell assets between them... then bankrupt the lame ones.

Example: Business 1 buys a $1M piece of equipment with 30% down and 70% credit. After a couple years, and knowing that Business 1 is not that profitable anyway, the machine is sold to Business 2 for $150k, even though it's probably worth $700k still.

Business 2 makes $550k profit on the books. Business 1 files bankruptcy. The creditor loses their $250k outstanding loan. If the same owners own both businesses, they come out massively ahead.

Rinse / repeat with dozens (or hundreds) of businesses, some automated workflows and depreciation tables, credit line hacking, etc.

Re:Yield Curves Invert in U.S., U.K by learc83 on Wednesday August 14, 2019 @07:15PM (#20700985)
Can't the bankruptcy trustees come after the owner when they see that the machine was sold far below value? They do something similar in personal bankruptcy.
Re:Yield Curves Invert in U.S., U.K by yellowapple on Wednesday August 14, 2019 @07:55PM (#20701239)
Selling things below value is pretty typical in a liquidation/bankruptcy scenario, though.
Re:Yield Curves Invert in U.S., U.K by learc83 on Wednesday August 14, 2019 @10:55PM (#20702211)
Yeah but there are limits. If I'm about to go bankrupt and I sell my $700k house to my brother for $150k, the trustee isn't going to let me get away with that.
Re:Yield Curves Invert in U.S., U.K by Phlarp on Thursday August 15, 2019 @12:25AM (#20702573)
Those limits are dynamic based on connections / how many white shoe lawyers you are willing to fund.

An established real estate family will have plenty of room to shuffle assets and credit lines around in a favorable way within those limits... for a generation or two.

Re:Yield Curves Invert in U.S., U.K by nwalker85 on Wednesday August 14, 2019 @01:38PM (#20697902)
Trump has created 515 businesses and only 11 of them failed. That's a 98.64% success rate. He has a better track record than Elon Musk by an order of magnitude.
Re:Yield Curves Invert in U.S., U.K by throw0101a on Wednesday August 14, 2019 @02:57PM (#20698778)
By "businesses" do you perhaps mean "shell corporations"? :)
Re:Yield Curves Invert in U.S., U.K by simtel20 on Wednesday August 14, 2019 @01:47PM (#20698007)
Citation? In what business did he see more success than Elon Musk?
Re:Yield Curves Invert in U.S., U.K by kickopotomus on Wednesday August 14, 2019 @01:43PM (#20697965)
Citation? What 515 businesses did he create?
Re:Yield Curves Invert in U.S., U.K by phat_gopher on Wednesday August 14, 2019 @02:20PM (#20698399)
Re:Yield Curves Invert in U.S., U.K by kickopotomus on Wednesday August 14, 2019 @03:57PM (#20699341)
Ah, now nwalker85's comment makes more sense although it is patently false. A more accurate assessment is that Trump has been associated with 515 business entities. The vast majority of those entities are shell corporations or LLCs meant to (as the name implies) limit liability.

He did not create 515 for-profit businesses.

Re:Yield Curves Invert in U.S., U.K by fredophile on Wednesday August 14, 2019 @02:55PM (#20698758)
How many of those are real businesses? If all the company does is hold a single asset, such as a private plane, or only has other Trump org companies as customers then it isn't a real business. I'll bet most of those companies exist solely to limit liability or for tax reasons.