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Re:Inflated Bond Ratings Helped Spur the Financial Crisis. T... by ajross on Thursday August 08, 2019 @01:19AM (#20642049)
The article isn't really making a prediction (though the headline spins it as if it might). It's pointing out a pretty obvious and easily understood conflict of interest in the way the bond rating market works. When rating packaged debt, the rating companies are not being "hired" by the end investor who will bear the risk, but by a middle-man firm who are creating the security and trying to unload it. So the rating firm only gets hired if the packager thinks they'll rate the security highly.

That's a real problem, and needs to be solved. It's not by itself a trigger for a financial crisis, though it's not hard to imagine it becoming one.

Re:Inflated Bond Ratings Helped Spur the Financial Crisis. T... by adaptiveValleys on Thursday August 08, 2019 @09:12AM (#20644152)
> middle-man firm who are creating the security and trying to unload it.

If the investment bank only facilitates the transaction, then the key incentive that could tilt the transaction toward having a sense of urgency, and as a result, indifference to the rating accuracy would be the personal gain of the individual/team attempting to process the transaction.

If that assumption holds, would tying in a performance based return to the banker who sells the security, balance it? That way they also have incentive to make sure the rating is as accurate as possible?

If so, then it seems that it would probably be resolved through legislation, because otherwise it appears to be an intractable coordination problem. Unless including a return for the seller based on the performance is something that occurs in the industry for other types of securities.

Re:Inflated Bond Ratings Helped Spur the Financial Crisis. T... by vanderZwan on Thursday August 08, 2019 @02:53AM (#20642398)
Exactly, and without taking anything away from the article: this is not a new insight. From the moment it became clear what were the main causes of the financial crisis, there have been plenty of people pointing out that practically nothing was done to actually address them.
Re:Inflated Bond Ratings Helped Spur the Financial Crisis. T... by JustSomeNobody on Thursday August 08, 2019 @08:10AM (#20643735)
Of course not. Because up until the bottom falls out, a few people are going to continue to make tons of money.
Re:Inflated Bond Ratings Helped Spur the Financial Crisis. T... by nradov on Thursday August 08, 2019 @02:59AM (#20642421)
Potential bond buyers are free to pay an independent third-party service for an independent rating if they want it.
Re:Inflated Bond Ratings Helped Spur the Financial Crisis. T... by mannykannot on Thursday August 08, 2019 @08:37AM (#20643924)
There is no practical way that I can make use of the availability of such ratings to protect myself (let alone others) from the damage to the economy that is being caused by the conflicts of interest being described here.
Re:Inflated Bond Ratings Helped Spur the Financial Crisis. T... by oarsinsync on Thursday August 08, 2019 @11:03AM (#20645190)
How do I get my employer-provided-pension fund to do this, when they depend on these rating agencies to ensure they only invest in safe, AAA rated securities?
Re:Inflated Bond Ratings Helped Spur the Financial Crisis. T... by pelario on Thursday August 08, 2019 @03:03AM (#20642436)
Do you know if they do it?
Re:Inflated Bond Ratings Helped Spur the Financial Crisis. T... by pas on Thursday August 08, 2019 @04:51AM (#20642846)
Big investors do it. They contract independent firms to double-check their own traders' thinking and decisions.

It's usually not proactive though. (PE firms get valuation checks before investment, but that's different than bonds.)

Re:Inflated Bond Ratings Helped Spur the Financial Crisis. T... by lr4444lr on Thursday August 08, 2019 @08:25AM (#20643822)
Sounds like a problem with (this type of) bonds in general as a financial instrument if their pricing is not contingent on actual market forces but rather the word of an expert.
Re:Inflated Bond Ratings Helped Spur the Financial Crisis. T... by anthonypasq on Thursday August 08, 2019 @10:09AM (#20644707)
they are priced based on the market, but rated by an agency. bond pricing is easily understood math.

People just trust the agencies when they rate bonds highly, even if they shouldnt be

Re:Inflated Bond Ratings Helped Spur the Financial Crisis. T... by tareqak on Thursday August 08, 2019 @04:07AM (#20642698)
Why not have legislation similar to what enables the credit-rating agencies to report on people’s credit habits on the securities industry?
Re:Inflated Bond Ratings Helped Spur the Financial Crisis. T... by gingabriska on Thursday August 08, 2019 @03:15AM (#20642475)
If that's the case, why market hasn't managed to solve it?

Rating agency who's customers pay a subscription price for receiving rating, should solve it?

Re:Inflated Bond Ratings Helped Spur the Financial Crisis. T... by nabla9 on Thursday August 08, 2019 @03:28AM (#20642528)
Markets only function well to some extent. Just having a market does not mean that you have a system that solves all pricing problems.
Re:Inflated Bond Ratings Helped Spur the Financial Crisis. T... by mexicanandre on Thursday August 08, 2019 @03:23AM (#20642511)
Your assuming markets are perfect - they aren’t
Re:Inflated Bond Ratings Helped Spur the Financial Crisis. T... by oarsinsync on Thursday August 08, 2019 @11:07AM (#20645239)
For each product needing to be rated, there's one seller and potentially many buyers.

Sellers need to convince buyers to buy their product. Sellers need to get their product rated in order to appeal to buyers. It's a one time cost to the seller to appeal to a large amount of buyers, and the higher the rating, the larger the pool of potential buyers.

Flip it around. How do you coordinate enough buyers together to pay for rating all the potential products out there to buy?

Re:Inflated Bond Ratings Helped Spur the Financial Crisis. T... by gingabriska on Thursday August 08, 2019 @12:35PM (#20646025)
Yes, you are right. Also because rating can't be kept private, so there is no reason for any buyer to subscribe and then rating agency isn't viable.
Re:Inflated Bond Ratings Helped Spur the Financial Crisis. T... by mannykannot on Thursday August 08, 2019 @08:42AM (#20643956)
As ajross says, there is a conflict of interest here. Not everyone wants an unbiased rating.

2008 provided strong empirical evidence that the market does not have the motive to solve its own problems. Markets are not obliged to conform to theories about how markets should work.