We are well past that 1%.

Global EV Sales In May 2019: Over 179,000 At 2.3% Market Share https://insideevs.com/news/357198/global-ev-sales-in-may-201...

The current trend is under 4 years until EV’s are 10% of global car sales. It’s likely adoption will slow down at some point, but 50% of all new car sales being EV could happen within 10 years. Though it would take much longer for EV’s to represent 1/2 of all cars on the road.

2.3% - at 60% annual growth would be ~100% in 8 years. Exponential growth is always unintuitive, but I'd expect many people in this community to understand it.

Next questions What is the sustainable growth rate? Higher than 60%? Lower?

And are we going to, in 10 years, see more EVs sold (for much less each) than ICE vehicles are sold today? The answer is we'd better, as we have to get those ICE vehicles off the road.

Pretty sure that's relative to the sales not to how many cars are EV of the entire car fleet , also probably a bunch of hybrids in that too.

Yeah sjwright asked about sales and got an answer about sales.

And I'm genuinely impressed that it's that high. I expected the Toyota Camrys and low cost Indian scooters to dwarf EV sales more than that—but I had forgotten about the Chinese manufacturers!

But I still agree with your point though, I don't call 2% market share booming. Not to mention the amount of incentives involves in pushing these numbers.

Battery and Charging point is still the biggest issue in most places around the world.

"low cost Indian scooters"

Would those actually be included in these figures?

I don't know, but they should be. Not doing so would be contemptuous for people of lower socio-economic means.

But if you include indian scooters, why not include pedelecs, or hover boards? And going the other way electric buses, and electric trains? Its useful to know the total number of electric people movers, its also useful to know how many electric cars there are. There is no moral component to that.

I'm pretty sure that Tesla alone is over 1% (maybe 1.5 to 2%?) of the US car market. Worldwide is likely to be even higher for electric cars in general.

The thing is that shifts in large markets like this take a long time to really be realized. It has taken Tesla 15 years to go from 0% to over 1%. Their current aggressive plans call to double that in another 2 years.

The real question is what kind of change can they make over the next 15 years. And for that, we need the crystal ball...

Looks like Tesla is sitting just under 1% currently YTD.

Edit: and 1.1% for 2018.

http://www.goodcarbadcar.net/u-s-auto-sales-figures-by-brand...

Oh, I underestimated total sales. For some reason I thought the US was closer to 15 million sales this year. I do think that estimate may be slightly undercounting Tesla this year, but I could be wrong.