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Re:Facebook, Libra, and the Long Game by simias on Tuesday June 25, 2019 @12:25PM (#20275822)
>I really don't know why this isn't a larger part of this conversation.

That's been the elephant in the room ever since Satoshi published its paper more than a decade ago. When I discuss with cryptocurrency enthusiasts I often get the impression that they think that banks are this kind of useless parasite body that somehow appears like mosquitoes around a pond in summer. That they only serve to basically operate ATMs, send you your Visa card and crash the market every other decade or so.

This is of course a gross misunderstanding of what banks are, what they do, why they do it and where they come from. In particular the idea that "bitcoin is going to kill banks" (a very common sentiment in my experience in cryptocurrency circles) is about as meaningful as "this new type of snowboard is going to kill ski resorts!". No it won't, it might change some things about how they operate but after the transition period it'll be business as usual. Cryptocurrencies don't come even close to replacing most of the services offered by banks. Actually, they don't even come close to replacing most of the services offered by actual currency.

It's this weird cognitive dissonance that you encounter in conspiracy theory circles: the banking system is this hellish beast that steals money from the honest middle-class worker, operated from a global circle of elites acting from the shadows and that must be destroyed at all cost to save humanity. How do you do that? By replacing their currency by your own, they'll never see that coming, those idiots.

Re:Facebook, Libra, and the Long Game by hinkley on Tuesday June 25, 2019 @08:05PM (#20280606)
This also bothers me about the end of Fight Club.

You think destroying bank records will remove the power inequality from the system? Good luck with that, kid.

Power has money, but money isn't power. It's the table scraps the rest of us chase after. It's also why you can tax the rich all you want and it won't take their power away. The transactions that truly matter to them aren't usually denominated in dollars. Cash is Plan B at best.

Don't believe me? Look at stories about nouveau rich not being taken seriously. You have to work your butts off to get your kids taken seriously (if you aren't lucky or fast enough, your grandkids, assuming your kids haven't blown their inheritance by then). You don't know anybody, and you don't have anything they need. All you have is money.

Trump talked about this every time he filed for bankruptcy. I'm sure his buddies would have preferred he kept his big mouth shut.

Re:Facebook, Libra, and the Long Game by elmomle on Sunday June 30, 2019 @01:24PM (#20319288)
Wanted to ask for a citation on that last paragraph. I'd be very interested to read more first-hand accounts about what you're talking about.
Re:Facebook, Libra, and the Long Game by splintercell on Wednesday June 26, 2019 @12:29AM (#20281930)
> Look at stories about nouveau rich not being taken seriously.

Yeah because there are actual differences between new rich and the old rich.

Re:Facebook, Libra, and the Long Game by sprafa on Tuesday June 25, 2019 @12:55PM (#20276210)
This is one of the reasons I dropped out of crypto for years, most of its supporters were completely delusional and tragically uninformed about actual banks.

I always considered two datapoints to be fulcral A) ease of use, which Bitcoin has never had and B) potential to be overtaken by an actual bank and twisted into whatever purposes it wanted due to the 51% error. That is, how hard would be it for JPMorgan or Deustche Bank to just buy 51% of Bitcoin and make it do whatever they wanted? I could never see the potential for either fact to be avoided, as much as the frothing Bitcoin-enthusiasts would like it to.

Re:Facebook, Libra, and the Long Game by panarky on Tuesday June 25, 2019 @01:40PM (#20276756)
> This is one of the reasons I dropped out of crypto for years, most of its supporters were completely delusional and tragically uninformed about actual banks.

The reason I stayed in is because Bitcoin solved a seemingly intractable problem, it works in the real world, and it's survived and even thrived in the face of fierce attacks for a decade.

Yes, there are many shills who are delusional and ignorant. Yes, speculators and fraudsters are running wild.

None of that changes the fundamental characteristics that make this a fascinating and promising technology, network and social movement.

Re:Facebook, Libra, and the Long Game by creato on Tuesday June 25, 2019 @04:01PM (#20278254)
> and it's survived and even thrived in the face of fierce attacks for a decade

What fierce attacks has bitcoin faced?

Sure, lots of people mock and criticize it, but no real action has been taken. The people criticizing it have just as much influence (or maybe even less) than the delusional and ignorant true believers.

To me, a fierce attack would be regulatory action taken by various world governments, but that hasn't happened. To the contrary, even countries that probably should care (e.g. China, with its capital controls, and bitcoin mining seemingly used to evade them) appear not to. If anything, that shows just how insignificant bitcoin is.

My vague impression (I don't follow this closely) of US regulators is that they have given bitcoin reasonable or even slightly favorable treatment.

Re:Facebook, Libra, and the Long Game by CodiePetersen on Tuesday June 25, 2019 @06:15PM (#20279601)
>>Sure, lots of people mock and criticize it,

Bitcoin and crypto only survive because of trust. There was a time, especially on Bloomberg, when the news was constantly criticising it and sowing mistrust. "It's only used by hackers" or "hit men are murdering people for crypto on the dark web" or "terrorist are funding operations with crypto.". So there have been countless efforts to break the core of what makes a currency valuable.

Additionally, Bitcoin specifically is illegal in several countries, China being one of them. The US has also seized several piles of bitcoin and like they do with other seized assets they put it up for auction. These guys buy the stuff up cheap and immediately sell it. Now that's not a specific attack but it is damaging to prices. Lastly exchanges are requiring photo id to buy things now because of regulation which makes it even harder for people to get into. I can buy bullets and in some cases guns more easily.

So there is actually plenty, not to mention numerous attacks on the network in the early days. Who knows who was behind those.

Re:Facebook, Libra, and the Long Game by mntmoss on Tuesday June 25, 2019 @05:36PM (#20279226)
With Bitcoin, there are certain elements that make it desirable as a bargaining chip during internal power struggles. The claim of banking and government being joined at the hip is true due to pragmatic convenience: If you want to have power over things like militaries and social services, you need a solution for financing and that sends you into the arms of the bankers. But if you start having an option to opt out, to say as a large institution, "we don't need you," then the banks have to start to compete.

At the end of that struggle, you still have a government in control of its financing, but the shape of it, borne through so many battles, is likely to be more efficient.

Re:Facebook, Libra, and the Long Game by Lucadg on Tuesday June 25, 2019 @11:54PM (#20281758)
As someone put it: we are picking a huge bear with a stick. We haven't seen anything yet, the war against crypto will be bloody.
Re:Facebook, Libra, and the Long Game by sprafa on Tuesday June 25, 2019 @02:24PM (#20277249)
Yes true, this is why I “dropped out of it” then eventually came back to it. The fact that I have Venezuelan friends who started hoarding it to avoid capital controls in their country convinced me of its usefulness and long-term viability.
Re:Facebook, Libra, and the Long Game by headsoup on Tuesday June 25, 2019 @09:43PM (#20281146)
So long as someone is there willing to pay the same price for those coins. Do the grocery stores, butchers and other providers accept Bitcoin there? How do they value their goods against a 'currency' that is growing X00% weekly?
Re:Facebook, Libra, and the Long Game by conanbatt on Tuesday June 25, 2019 @11:34PM (#20281664)
You have brokers that move dollars for bitcoin. So you turn it to actual cash. The key part is that there is no bank involved at any step.
Re:Facebook, Libra, and the Long Game by gomox on Tuesday June 25, 2019 @10:02PM (#20281239)
The mild fluctuations of the Bitcoin price can look like a walk in the park compared to the Venezuelan local currency.
Re:Facebook, Libra, and the Long Game by headsoup on Tuesday June 25, 2019 @10:12PM (#20281288)
I'm not familiar with the history, but is Venezuela's currency constantly volatile or are recent events an anomaly? How do you define Bitcoin's fluctuations as 'mild' - i.e what are you comparing it to other than the local currency to determine stability?
Re:Facebook, Libra, and the Long Game by gomox on Tuesday June 25, 2019 @11:54PM (#20281756)
The comment was mostly tongue in cheek. Venezuelan currency has been hyperinflating for a while. So people are used to referencing prices in currencies other than the one used for the actual payment.
Re:Facebook, Libra, and the Long Game by tiluha on Tuesday June 25, 2019 @02:07PM (#20277056)
I think you are misinformed about how bitcoin works.

Bitcoin doesn't care how much of it you have, as it uses Proof-of-Work not Proof-of-Stake. The only thing that matters is you computational power. Now it is true that large banks could just buy lots of ASICs and try to beat the network, but that would mean a continued investment: As soon as they stop mining, the network would return to normal.

They can hurt bitcoin (not that cheap anymore) by making it unusable for a period of time, but unless they are willing to keep mining until everybody else stops, they won't be able to kill it.

As far as usability goes i don't think bitcoin is that hard: Download an app, scan a QR-code, send money. Not that complicated. The transaction rate is a problem, though.

I agree that some people are too enthusiastic about crypto, but I think it still has its place. It doesn't have to kill banks.

Re:Facebook, Libra, and the Long Game by tdfx on Tuesday June 25, 2019 @04:59PM (#20278894)
I think the deadly attack on Bitcoin is not anyone gaining 51% of the network, but rather DoS'ing its ability to conduct real transactions. Bitcoin is not considered a threat right now but if that ever changes, just remember the US government "lost track of" $9bn while "reconstructing" Iraq and it didn't even seem to concern anyone. That kind of money could make transactions prohibitively expensive on the Bitcoin network for quite some time if the government's posture towards cryptocurrency ever hardens.

[1] https://www.theguardian.com/world/2005/feb/01/iraq.suzannego...

Re:Facebook, Libra, and the Long Game by sprafa on Tuesday June 25, 2019 @02:26PM (#20277270)
The transaction rate is deadly in my opinion, not just bad. A year or so ago the rates were running at ridiculous prices. It’s a black eye on the Bitcoin Core that they haven’t fixed this nor do they seem inclined to (the Bitcoin Cash Core seemed convinced they wanted nothing else but to control Bitcoin entirely).
Re:Facebook, Libra, and the Long Game by bduerst on Tuesday June 25, 2019 @04:12PM (#20278389)
It hasn't changed because the people who control the hard fork, the miners, benefit from the increased transaction fees that the low rate produces through competition to get in on the next (small) block. It's a textbook example of Tragedy of the Commons.
Re:Facebook, Libra, and the Long Game by SkyMarshal on Wednesday June 26, 2019 @08:43AM (#20284348)
No, it's a credit to Bitcoin Core that they understand the tradeoffs involved in increasing transaction rate via blocksize increase. Continuously growing resource usage is a centralizing force and thus an existential risk to Bitcoin. Core is rightly unwilling to trade a little short-term pain relief for increased long term risk of catastrophic failure. The difficulty is that just how much of a centralizing force is difficult to measure, so there's a lot of uncertainty around it, opening the door for the more reckless to complain about transaction prices.
Re:Facebook, Libra, and the Long Game by CodiePetersen on Tuesday June 25, 2019 @06:39PM (#20279820)
I do agree the transaction rate and fee are horrid. But there are other coins that solve this problem in a dectralized manner. Also there are some block chains that all cross chain atomic swaps. I've been working with a blockchain called Xaya and there is mentions of maybe implementing that as well. I might help on that front after my game is finished. More importantly though. Xaya implements merged mining and you can mine xaya( the coin is called chi) and bitcoin at the same time. So there are not so many problems as people claim or think with crypto.
Re:Facebook, Libra, and the Long Game by headsoup on Tuesday June 25, 2019 @09:45PM (#20281158)
How does that help reduce fees? Excuse my naivety, but can you share a bit more about cross-chain atomic swaps, what does that mean?
Re:Facebook, Libra, and the Long Game by CodiePetersen on Tuesday June 25, 2019 @11:18PM (#20281598)
The atomic cross-chain swapping means I can have assets or a coin on one chain and transfer it to another. In this case maybe transfer coins from bitcoin to the xaya blockchain for chi. It wouldn't really get rid of the transaction fees for bitcoin, but what it would do is allow you to transfer some amount of bitcoin out if you know you are going to be doing high frequency transactions. You could just do it on a lower fee blockchain and then put it back in your bitcoin account when you have done what you wanted to do.

There is another possibility on Xaya and I believe Ethereum has implemented as well now. On Xaya they are called game channels. The idea is that you allow a side branching chain to develop between an arbitrary number of people, then when a game is over you inject the end of the side chain back into the main chain and verify it. They invented it for near realtime verification between consenting parties, then you only pay the main transaction fee when you get back on the main block instead of very every action. But that type of system doesn't have to be only done with games obviously, that could be applied to anything.

If you are interested more in it, you can check this video out. They have lots of documentation and tutorials for the network as well.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wMd9mvc8pqA

Re:Facebook, Libra, and the Long Game by VarFarYonder on Tuesday June 25, 2019 @07:18PM (#20280248)
Re:Facebook, Libra, and the Long Game by kitten_smuggler on Tuesday June 25, 2019 @02:00PM (#20276972)
> This is one of the reasons I dropped out of crypto for years, most of its supporters were completely delusional and tragically uninformed about actual banks.

I don't think you understand bitcoin as well as you think you do. 51% attacks do not work like this.

Re:Facebook, Libra, and the Long Game by sprafa on Tuesday June 25, 2019 @02:23PM (#20277227)
I would welcome a correction! My impression is if anyone has 51% of all bitcoin they can write whatever they’d like on the blockchain and validate it at will. Is this wrong?
Re:Facebook, Libra, and the Long Game by z3c0 on Tuesday June 25, 2019 @02:43PM (#20277466)
Sort of, yeah. It would be 51% of verification nodes. If you bought 51% of all Bitcoin, but it was verified by everybody else in the network, you don't actually have any power to decide if your transactions were valid or not. If you controlled 51% of the nodes, you would have majority control over which transactions are valid.
Re:Facebook, Libra, and the Long Game by Conjoiner on Wednesday June 26, 2019 @12:39AM (#20281972)
it's not 51% of the nodes, it's 51% of the hashing power together with following the agreed upon rules of the network
Re:Facebook, Libra, and the Long Game by z3c0 on Wednesday June 26, 2019 @03:45PM (#20288424)
You're correct. I oversimplified it quite a bit.
Re:Facebook, Libra, and the Long Game by MichaelConlon on Tuesday June 25, 2019 @02:39PM (#20277420)
Bitcoin uses proof of work [1] to verify transactions on the network. For someone to effectively rewrite the network they would need to control 51% of the total computing power (in hashes/sec) on the bitcoin network.

[1] https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Proof_of_work

Re:Facebook, Libra, and the Long Game by sprafa on Tuesday June 25, 2019 @04:28PM (#20278564)
I see so I was mistaken about that. I still don’t understand why people don’t see that it would be trivial for a major bank (or now that Bitcoin has grown, a government) to look into making enough computational power they would destroy it.
Re:Facebook, Libra, and the Long Game by dave7 on Tuesday June 25, 2019 @04:56PM (#20278862)
For Bitcoin specifically (by far the largest), the amount of computational power is now very large indeed. An argument often seen against Bitcoin is that of it's environmental damages - quotes like "it uses more power than the whole of Denmark!".

So yes, 51% control could be usurped by a dedicated attacker - but the resources are no longer trivial. And as noted, this "control" doesn't buy you a great deal unless you keep it going for eternity, and for the time period you do have control all you can do is basically stop it working properly by preventing new transactions - rewriting history is exponentially more expensive the farther back you try to go.

Re:Facebook, Libra, and the Long Game by ses1984 on Tuesday June 25, 2019 @07:13PM (#20280202)
Just having 51% of the network doesn't mean checkmate. It allows you to perform something called a double spend. I could buy something from you with bitcoin, while at the same time I attempted to send the same funds back to myself. If I controlled 51% of the network, there is a slim chance that would work, because the other 49% of the hash power is still validating the transaction where I sent you the funds, not the secret one I sent myself.

If this were a big transaction, I might choose to wait for more than one confirmation before completing my end of the transaction. The longer I wait, the more expensive it becomes for you to conduct your 51% attack.

It really is prohibitively expensive, to conduct such an attack, when you consider a few other factors. I could double spend the money to myself, but after news of such an attack came out, the price likely could crash, reducing the prize.

Not to mention opportunity cost. If you have the means to conduct a 51% attack it means you have a lot of capital and expertise. You could put those two together to make a giant pile of money through legitimate means, like operating a hedge fund. The risk is a lot less.

The only group that would be motivated enough and capable enough to perpetrate such an attack would be a state, and why would they bother when, like was mentioned elsewhere, they could attack bitcoin with the stroke of a pen, via regulation etc. It's waaay less effort.

Re:Facebook, Libra, and the Long Game by profalseidol on Wednesday June 26, 2019 @08:42PM (#20290782)
As others have explained, it's arguable that banks cannot do this. Though I am curious if there some way to outlaw cryptocurrency, possible go as far as impose sanctions to other countries.

Also, would like to note that Bitcoin can also function as store of value just like Gold.

Any news about Lightning? Is that running live now?

Re:Facebook, Libra, and the Long Game by CodiePetersen on Tuesday June 25, 2019 @06:32PM (#20279751)
Banks have decade old hardware and take forever to upgrade software and protocols. You expect them to design a sophisticated attack and run it for however long. On top of that, it would be really easy to find out which bank was doing it and that has huge legal and customer based ramifications. Definitely not worth it.
Re:Facebook, Libra, and the Long Game by profalseidol on Wednesday June 26, 2019 @08:46PM (#20290797)
Lol, we a major consumer bank here that have "system error" and everyone's payday salary is mixed up. I imagine some miserable dev tasked to run a batch script and forgot to do some steps.

For sure these banks wouldn't use their own hardware, but hire a new team, new hardware etc.

Re:Facebook, Libra, and the Long Game by VarFarYonder on Tuesday June 25, 2019 @07:07PM (#20280143)
Re:Facebook, Libra, and the Long Game by magnamerc on Tuesday June 25, 2019 @02:44PM (#20277473)
Even for PoS cryptos where you require 51% of the currency to control the network, it would become prohibitively expensive to buy up 51% of the circulating supply due to market dynamics. PoS is arguably more secure than PoW. Arguably.
Re:Facebook, Libra, and the Long Game by lovecg on Tuesday June 25, 2019 @04:09PM (#20278347)
And then even if you do, you now own a lot of the currency and are in theory incentivized to keep the value from crashing.
Re:Facebook, Libra, and the Long Game by alanfalcon on Tuesday June 25, 2019 @05:20PM (#20279093)
Missiles have a lot of value. Crashing them expends that value. Governments still crash missiles into their enemies.
Re:Facebook, Libra, and the Long Game by CodiePetersen on Tuesday June 25, 2019 @06:50PM (#20279933)
Let's go with a proof of stake coin like tron. They have a 2.5 billion market cap. That's more than all of the pentagons ai budget. Congress was bitching about the f35's 94 million dollar price tag. Do you think they are going to vote to give a budget for not only the attack but the person ell and hardware as well? All for a, according to HN apparently, "insignificant financial threat". Doubtful. Easier to just regulate it with a single pen stroke.
Re:Facebook, Libra, and the Long Game by cesarb on Tuesday June 25, 2019 @07:38PM (#20280400)
> My impression is if anyone has 51% of all bitcoin they can write whatever they’d like on the blockchain and validate it at will. Is this wrong?

Completely wrong. There is a set of rules which define whether a Bitcoin block is valid or not, things like "the block's hash has this many zero bits" (simplifying a bit here, the actual rule is a bit more complex), "all transactions have a valid signature" (simplifying a lot here, it actually runs a sort of a small program) and "no transaction spends outputs which have already been spent". It doesn't matter how much Bitcoin you have or how much hash power you have, even if you have 100% of all Bitcoin and 100% of all hash power, if the block doesn't follow the rules it will be ignored by all validating Bitcoin nodes.

What having 51% or more of the Bitcoin hash power gains you is only that you can rewrite history. You can present a chain of blocks to other nodes, and later present a different "longer" chain of blocks to the same nodes, and they'll accept the "longer" chain and discard the older one. All these blocks, however, still have to be valid to be accepted.

Re:Facebook, Libra, and the Long Game by sharadov on Tuesday June 25, 2019 @07:06PM (#20280136)
My fundamental issue was that the value is so wildly varying and not being accepted at regular places that it fails horribly as a medium of exchange for goods and services.
Re:Facebook, Libra, and the Long Game by holy_city on Tuesday June 25, 2019 @01:10PM (#20276421)
Someone once told me that U of Chicago's business school used this classic to describe banking:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iPkJH6BT7dM

Re:Facebook, Libra, and the Long Game by heimatau on Wednesday June 26, 2019 @12:34PM (#20286577)
> This is of course a gross misunderstanding of what banks are, what they do, why they do it and where they come from.

You're being overly reductionist.

The functions of banks are great and valuable but they are disproportionately so. Why? Because they get free money from the Fed and are using fractional reserves.

Do you think the Bank's services would be as pervasive if the working class had a stable store of value for their work? I don't. Banks need competition and with Bitcoin and the crypto space, they finally got some serious competition.

Also, there are plenty of startups in the cryptocurrency space that ARE doing functions that banks offer. SALT is one that comes to mind quickly but there are plenty of others.

Re:Facebook, Libra, and the Long Game by oarabbus_ on Tuesday June 25, 2019 @08:38PM (#20280814)
You've said what banks are _not_ and the gross misunderstandings people have about what banks (aren't).

But you didn't actually tell the reader what banks _are_.

Care to elaborate?

Re:Facebook, Libra, and the Long Game by chaoticmass on Tuesday June 25, 2019 @02:33PM (#20277347)
I can't pay my taxes in Crypto, so in that sense I don't think will ever completely replace fiat currency and the banks.
Re:Facebook, Libra, and the Long Game by Rychard on Tuesday June 25, 2019 @03:32PM (#20277976)
You can do this in at least one US state: Ohio[1]. I'm not sure of how many other states (if any) that have something similar.

[1]: https://ohiocrypto.com/

Re:Facebook, Libra, and the Long Game by bduerst on Tuesday June 25, 2019 @04:15PM (#20278421)
>Please use Internet Explorer to view site and thank you for your cooperation.

There's some irony here.

Re:Facebook, Libra, and the Long Game by jpkiser on Tuesday June 25, 2019 @12:58PM (#20276262)
Yes, there are many Bitcoiners who believe that everyone will become their own bank but I believe a more common sentiment is the idea off full backed reserved. But a great I feel that a more common belief held by Bitcoiners is that the "inherent" issues with capitalism come from fractional reserve banking. Now for the first time in history there is a form of money that you can prove in a matter of seconds that your money didn't move when you gave custody to the bank. In fact with multisignature transactions banks would simply act as a escrow service for those, I imagine a most people, who do not feel comfortable managing their own keys.
Re:Facebook, Libra, and the Long Game by geezerjay on Tuesday June 25, 2019 @01:27PM (#20276616)
> Now for the first time in history there is a form of money that you can prove in a matter of seconds that your money didn't move when you gave custody to the bank.

Why do you believe this has any relevance at all? People want to buy stuff, not exchange bill with serial number #abcxyz with stuff.

And from my example you can easily understand why your assertion is quite wrong to begin with.

Re:Facebook, Libra, and the Long Game by Macross8299 on Tuesday June 25, 2019 @06:18PM (#20279618)
>Why do you believe this has any relevance at all? People want to buy stuff, not exchange bill with serial number #abcxyz with stuff.

Because it solves the double spend problem [0] associated with digital currency without use of a centralized database.

I think that matters to people trying to avoid onerous capital controls or a government printing 31% of the money supply in a week [1]

[0]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Double-spending

[1]: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-02-05/venezuela...

Re:Facebook, Libra, and the Long Game by JoeSamoa on Tuesday June 25, 2019 @02:30PM (#20277320)
I care about my exact bills and your exact bills. I care. Maybe you don't, but I do and so does the person you replied to. That makes at least two of us.
Re:Facebook, Libra, and the Long Game by codyb on Tuesday June 25, 2019 @03:26PM (#20277905)
You care about your exact bills? You actually take the time to look at the serial numbers of all the bills you use in a given day/week/month/year? For what purpose?

I check for cool serial numbers fairly frequently but I couldn’t say I care about the exact bills. A five’s a five. That’s why currency is great.

Re:Facebook, Libra, and the Long Game by JoeSamoa on Thursday July 04, 2019 @04:26AM (#20352676)
If I was interested in financial forensics I'd be interested in the serials. Don't be dense.