Re:Tesla: Insane or Clever
by pwinnski on Monday May 20, 2019 @11:37AM
(#19961492)
I can't speak for anyone else, but I'm not even talking about the full-self-driving pipe dream. In general, despite real technological shortcomings, the iPhone approach to software beat out approaches of Nokia, Motorola, et al. It's easy to see how a software-focused company--maybe Tesla, maybe not--could do the same with the existing car companies.
For a tiny example of how I'm thinking: Apple introduced CarPlay, and it took years for car companies to be ready on their end. Super-long lead times seem like a good idea when you're talking about airline safety, but for bluetooth audio? For touch-screen user interface stuff? Think about how much iOS and Android have changed just in the last five years, and think about having everything delayed by five years because "we're a car company, not a computer company."
I don't just mean everything that happened in 2012 happens in 2017 instead, I mean that the first release is delayed by five years, which means that it isn't until that release hits the market that developers can see what direction to go in based on user feedback, and then there's another five years before that hits the market, and then competitors are also doing things, but it's another five years before that has any effect, and so on.
I'm as terrified as anyone ought to be about the idea that Tesla can over-the-air release a regression that drives someone into a concrete barrier it used to navigate properly, but the details of Tesla aside, the whole idea of focusing on software seems like a good move, and I think the car industry will (much more slowly) follow the phone industry overall pattern.
For a tiny example of how I'm thinking: Apple introduced CarPlay, and it took years for car companies to be ready on their end. Super-long lead times seem like a good idea when you're talking about airline safety, but for bluetooth audio? For touch-screen user interface stuff? Think about how much iOS and Android have changed just in the last five years, and think about having everything delayed by five years because "we're a car company, not a computer company."
I don't just mean everything that happened in 2012 happens in 2017 instead, I mean that the first release is delayed by five years, which means that it isn't until that release hits the market that developers can see what direction to go in based on user feedback, and then there's another five years before that hits the market, and then competitors are also doing things, but it's another five years before that has any effect, and so on.
I'm as terrified as anyone ought to be about the idea that Tesla can over-the-air release a regression that drives someone into a concrete barrier it used to navigate properly, but the details of Tesla aside, the whole idea of focusing on software seems like a good move, and I think the car industry will (much more slowly) follow the phone industry overall pattern.