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Re:Amazon rolls out machines that pack orders and replace jobs by gridlockd on Monday May 13, 2019 @10:16AM (#19899430)
A UBI in the salary range of an Amazon warehouse worker would be on the order of 1/3rd GDP.
Re:Amazon rolls out machines that pack orders and replace jobs by wjmao88 on Monday May 13, 2019 @10:53AM (#19899833)
Having one third of the value created by everyone pooled together to distribute to everyone sounds completely fine to me. I'd say the society as a whole plays a role that is on average greater than 1/3 on your success.
Re:Amazon rolls out machines that pack orders and replace jobs by gridlockd on Monday May 13, 2019 @02:14PM (#19902076)
First of all, GDP is a bad measure for "value created". It's more of a measure for "money spent" and that generally includes a lot of long-term and debt, especially in the US.

Secondly, you can't actually redistribute GDP. You could (in theory) take 100% of the profits of all businesses, that would add up to about 12% of GDP:

https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2018/8/30/saupload_B...

Notice the drop around 2008? That's what happens when a lot of debt can't be serviced anymore.

Lastly, "society as a whole" doesn't contribute to anyone's success. Just because you are a member of society doesn't automatically imply you have done anything for anyone. If I was offered a UBI on an Amazon's worker's salary, I would just retire, or at least drastically reduce my workload. A lot of my money goes towards my retirement anyway, so why bother?

This is entirely different from a "subsistence UBI", which I do support in principle.

Re:Amazon rolls out machines that pack orders and replace jobs by sokoloff on Monday May 13, 2019 @11:34AM (#19900309)
Would that be on top of the over 1/3rd that I already pay to the US Treasury?
Re:Amazon rolls out machines that pack orders and replace jobs by wjmao88 on Monday May 13, 2019 @11:45AM (#19900437)
It would overlap with a lot of what you are already paying. It completely overlaps with social security and partially overlaps with the taxes that goes to social welfare.

For the rest of your tax money, there are concrete places that those are going to and if you don't like them, we can altogether as a society do something about it. And guess what, with UBI people will have a lot more time and freedom to spend on actually participating in politics.

Sure, in the end it might bumps it up from 1/3 to 1/2 maybe, but you are getting a lot of that back anyway as UBI to yourself. Even at 1/2 I don't think its unfair.

Re:Amazon rolls out machines that pack orders and replace jobs by driverdan on Monday May 13, 2019 @11:05AM (#19899974)
UBI supporters always seem to forget that the money has to come from somewhere.
Re:Amazon rolls out machines that pack orders and replace jobs by sokoloff on Monday May 13, 2019 @11:34AM (#19900302)
I'm a UBI supporter in theory. It's the practical math that always leaves me hung up. Even $600/mo/adult citizen is a seemingly prohibitive amount of money (works out to approximately the entire amount of all individual income tax payments, or about half of total receipts, including FICA).

And of course, $600/mo/adult is an extremely meager existence.

Re:Amazon rolls out machines that pack orders and replace jobs by xienze on Monday May 13, 2019 @01:20PM (#19901450)
> And of course, $600/mo/adult is an extremely meager existence.

Well the good news is that once UBI is implemented all future elections will boil down to politicians promising a bigger UBI increase than the other guy. Problem solved!

Re:Amazon rolls out machines that pack orders and replace jobs by sim_card_map on Monday May 13, 2019 @12:39PM (#19901012)
If we take all the money the Netherlands spends on social security, welfare, pensions, etc, and add extra money from increased taxes (make it flat 50-60%), every single household can have a UBI of about 42 000 euros/year.

The numbers are similar for other western economies.

Re:Amazon rolls out machines that pack orders and replace jobs by gridlockd on Monday May 13, 2019 @02:26PM (#19902239)
> If we take all the money the Netherlands spends on social security, welfare, pensions...

Okay...

> ... add extra money from increased taxes (make it flat 50-60%)

No. You can't presume anything about increased revenue from extra taxes. If you taxed income for any amount of work at 50% and you give every "household" 42,000€ (which I assume is livable in NL) you would drastically reduce the incentive to work and pay taxes, so your actual tax revenue goes down.

> The numbers are similar for other western economies.

The numbers generally say that if you pool all the social spending, you can redistribute it to everyone and it will pay for a subsistence level of living. However, a big part of that pool is pensions, which are liabilities in proportion to the amount paid by the individual. A lot of pensioners would be subsidizing people who never paid into the system. That's the main problem.

Re:Amazon rolls out machines that pack orders and replace jobs by EpicEng on Monday May 13, 2019 @01:43PM (#19901719)
>add extra money from increased taxes (make it flat 50-60%)

Good luck passing a bill that raises my effective tax rate from 17% to 55%. Obviously if you take a whole lot more money from everyone else there will be more to hand out to others.

Re:Amazon rolls out machines that pack orders and replace jobs by sim_card_map on Monday May 13, 2019 @02:09PM (#19902010)
There's no way your effective rate goes from 17% to 55%. Did you include the extra 3000/month you'll be getting?
Re:Amazon rolls out machines that pack orders and replace jobs by gridlockd on Monday May 13, 2019 @02:35PM (#19902342)
The effective total rate of taxes may not be 55%, but the rate on income earned would be. Who would work full-time in an ordinary job if it was taxed at 55% when they simultaneously get paid a generous UBI?

Also remember you counted in pensions into your budget, those are separate from taxes. So the net profit from working would be maybe 30% or less - ridiculous!

Re:Amazon rolls out machines that pack orders and replace jobs by EpicEng on Monday May 13, 2019 @02:33PM (#19902317)
Ok that's fair; I completely ignored the ~$36,000 deduction I'd be getting.
Re:Amazon rolls out machines that pack orders and replace jobs by sim_card_map on Monday May 13, 2019 @01:04PM (#19901283)
Current social security spending gives us $9k per household. Cutting military spending in half (utopian, but so is UBI): $3200 per hh. Raising income tax to a simple flat 50% rate gives us extra 0.7 trillion or $7k per hh. Single payer would give us about $1k per hh plus free healthcare for everyone. No more insurance payments.

That is already about $21k per year per household.

Re:Amazon rolls out machines that pack orders and replace jobs by gridlockd on Monday May 13, 2019 @02:45PM (#19902478)
> Raising income tax to a simple flat 50% rate gives us extra 0.7 trillion or $7k per hh.

If income tax was raised to 50% flat and you keep all the social security and single payer spending, your paycheck would net maybe 25% of your salary. Who works full time for 25 cents on the dollar when they can just retire?

So then people won't work full time, your tax revenue, your single payer money, your pension money, it all goes down. It can't pay for your UBI.

Even worse, all this spending you are talking about redistributing isn't even paid for today. It's funded by debt. With the boomers retiring, there are huge amounts of unfunded liabilities.

It may not be obvious to you, but what you are proposing is that we can just all sit back, work less, print money and everyone will be better off. It's a fantasy.

To be clear, I support a UBI, but one has to be very careful about the actual amount.

Re:Amazon rolls out machines that pack orders and replace jobs by sokoloff on Monday May 13, 2019 @04:44PM (#19903763)
> one has to be very careful about the actual amount.

And limits/process on how/if it can be raised. Otherwise, it's likely to devolve into people literally voting themselves an ever-increasing share of money from the treasury...

Re:Amazon rolls out machines that pack orders and replace jobs by bluGill on Monday May 13, 2019 @12:29PM (#19900908)
I'm not sure if I support UBI or not. There are good arguments on both sides. I suspect that there are unintended consequences of it that are currently completely unknown (I don't know if they are good or bad).

If I'm to support UBI it would be a meager existence: enough that you can eat. Like socialism UBI need to account for eventually somebody needs to do something. Food needs to come from someplace, that means somebody had to work for it, and that somebody should get some reward for it.

Re:Amazon rolls out machines that pack orders and replace jobs by ryandrake on Monday May 13, 2019 @12:14PM (#19900753)
Oh woe! Where in the world will we find all this money? There is such a shortage of money in the country!

San Francisco was recently reported to have 1 billionaire for every 11,600 residents [1]. Maybe we should start looking there.

1: https://m.sfgate.com/bayarea/article/billionaires-San-Franci...

Re:Amazon rolls out machines that pack orders and replace jobs by gridlockd on Monday May 13, 2019 @02:52PM (#19902567)
Yeah, you should look up how many billionaires there are and how much money they have, not just in the US, but in the world.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Billionaire

The answer? 2,754 people with a combined $9.2 trillion to their name.

In other words, half of US GDP, or one and a half years of UBI as proposed here. That assumes of course all the billionaires in the world can be "convinced" to give up all of their wealth for UBI in the US.

Re:Amazon rolls out machines that pack orders and replace jobs by irrational on Monday May 13, 2019 @03:49PM (#19903214)
This is the part that confuses me about UBI. Why would anyone work if it became widespread? You could just stay at home and read, work on hobbies, do art, serve other people, play games, etc. instead of going to work. I pay tens of thousands of dollars in taxes, but if UBI was implemented I'd be paying nothing in taxes (assuming my UBI is not taxed - though, they tax social security, so they probably will tax UBI).
Re:Amazon rolls out machines that pack orders and replace jobs by anthonypasq on Monday May 13, 2019 @03:47PM (#19903191)
literally no one forgets this.

UBI haters somehow never fail to pretend as if no one has put an ounce of thought into how to pay for a proposal that intends on giving everyone free money.

Re:Amazon rolls out machines that pack orders and replace jobs by robotresearcher on Tuesday May 14, 2019 @01:28AM (#19906984)
For context, Medicare and Social security are each about $1 trillion/yr for a total of about 10% of GDP today.
Re:Amazon rolls out machines that pack orders and replace jobs by mrybczyn on Monday May 13, 2019 @10:30AM (#19899580)
30K / year * 100 million people = 3 trillion. 1/6th GDP. Lots of money.
Re:Amazon rolls out machines that pack orders and replace jobs by deathanatos on Monday May 13, 2019 @10:50AM (#19899799)
(Presuming the USA) We have 327M people, approximately 250M of which are adults. So, you're off by half, and the OP's statement of 1/3 seems closer…
Re:Amazon rolls out machines that pack orders and replace jobs by psandersen on Monday May 13, 2019 @10:52AM (#19899817)
It is a huge amount of money. Though the real question is the feedback loops UBI creates IMHO... The money will be injected straight back in the economy as people are still living paycheck to paycheck at that wage, so given studies show every $1 given to people on lower income results in around $1.2 in GDP* you'd expect overall GDP to grow provided its the UBI level and tax system is properly balanced.

Clever use of UBI also allows redoing many labour laws & protections because having UBI to fall back on will substantially improve the bargaining power of workers so they won't need the same protections.

* Sorry don't have a reference, seen this discussed a few places as common knowledge.

Re:Amazon rolls out machines that pack orders and replace jobs by NotSammyHagar on Monday May 13, 2019 @10:25AM (#19899521)
That's much higher than I expect, citation? I was told there would be math.
Re:Amazon rolls out machines that pack orders and replace jobs by sokoloff on Monday May 13, 2019 @10:33AM (#19899607)
Did you make any attempt to solve it yourself?

Googling: Amazon warehouse worker $14/hour. 2080 hours per year = $29K. US Adult population 252 million. Multiply: 7.4 Trillion. US GDP (2017) 19.4 Trillion. Taking only US citizen adults, the figure is still >90% of the above.

Re:Amazon rolls out machines that pack orders and replace jobs by NotSammyHagar on Saturday May 18, 2019 @01:57AM (#19945912)
Yeah, I could do it myself, I was being sarcastic but maybe no one could tell. One question is always what is the UBI amount. Say 1k for kids, 2k for adults. Wikipedia says 18% are 14 y.o. or under, so say 25% will get 1k, 75% get 2k each month. Use 325 mil as population. 325m * (1/4 * 12k + 3/4 * 24k) = 6.8 trillion so basically the same as you. I want people to say what their vision of the size of UBI funding is. It's ambiguous, kind of like what is brexit?

The other side of it is we are a consumer spending driven economy. If consumers, especially poor people, had more money they'd spend it (unlike say overpaid software engineers like me). We'd get a big boost in the economy. Just like reducing unpayable college loans will free up much more money for the economy.

Instead of thinking about the % of the gdp, think about tax revenue. It's 3.6 trillion a year. Tripling tax overhead to fund this new thing would actually hurt the economy, even I can see that.