This is the dangerous allure of an authoritarian state and China has been here before -- many times. Replace "western medical infrastructure" with "a massive wall to keep the barbarians to the north out" or "a massive canal to connect the two rivers" and you'll get the same effect. Authoritarian states, which China really basically pioneered during the Qin dynasty, can accomplish great things when its powers are wielded correctly. The problem is that when the people or person in charge is incompetent, crazy, and/or lazy then the whole thing just goes to hell. The often tried and just as often unsuccessful solution is to have good court officials and properly educating the heir-apparent but the cycle of dynasties and the catastrophe that follow their overthrows suggests that it is not a good long term solution. In fact, these violent overthrows often erases many of the accomplishments of the peaceful periods. This is sort of the problem democracy solves: accountability allows the leader(s) to be changed in a non-violent way. The problem with democracies is that it is almost by definition very average in progress. It is slow and steady but the overall trend is positive. It takes a very long term view to appreciate the steadiness of progress in democracies. The US is on track to overtake the majority of Chinese dynasties in term of longevity.

Authoritarianism is good when its good, and really bad when its bad.

Democracy is good when its good, and okay when its bad.

Democratic system are never the fastest way of getting something done, but seems to be the most consistently less-bad system for outcomes. The state that can build an entire medical infrastructure from scratch is also the same one that can build vast concentration camp systems far out in the provinces.

This is an important point. I agree. China will fail - and fail badly - in my lifetime - again. Authoritarianism failed them badly during the Cultural Revolution and the Great Leap Forward.

"These policies led to social and economic disaster, but these failures were hidden by widespread exaggeration and deceitful reports. In short order, large resources were diverted to use on expensive new industrial operations, which, in turn, failed to produce much, and deprived the agricultural sector of urgently needed resources. An important result was a drastic decline in food output, which caused millions of deaths in the Great Chinese Famine."

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Leap_Forward

Sure, they'll not make that mistake again - but they'll make others just as egregious. It's what authoritarians do best.

I’m not so sure. Plenty of authoritarian countries have done quite well (and even transitioned to more democratic systems peacefully) in Asia like South Korea, Taiwan, and Singapore.

Right. I think they will fail if they don't transition to a democratic system. What an amazing country it would become if that happens.

I think the cause and effect are flipped: if they succeed they will want democracy, if they fail to escape the middle income trap they will never reach high enough on the hierarchy of needs to demand political voice.

Just want to address one point: China (and the Qin dynasty) was definitely not a pioneer of authoritarian control!

This has always been my opinion, you can only go so far with a strong man driven - authoritarian regime, eventually it will implode. China was very poor not too long ago, people subsisting on next to nothing. People are not questioning anything, because they are only now entering the middle -class workforce. When these folks move to the next level in the rung, they will start questioning and demanding what we in the west consider fundamentals of democracy - free speech, diversity. You can install a cyber wall, block off all western press, but your people are traveling to the west, in fact, Chinese tourists are the biggest contingent to Europe. You cannot prevent the dissemination of ideas, and ideas are more powerful than a nuclear bomb!

China has been "about to implode" according to misguided Western observers since 1989 and shows no signs of doing so 30 years later.

They said the same about Rome

The great thing about being a bear is that you’ll be right eventually, but the million dollar question is when

> It takes a very long term view to appreciate the steadiness of progress in democracies.

That's ironic given China's vaunted ability to think very long-term (100-year strategy).

The US is strangled by responsibility-avoidance everywhere, public and private sector. Layers and layers of consultants and bureaucrats to make sure no-one ever makes a decision without being able to point a finger elsewhere, repeat recursively for each added layer. No one with the will and authority to call people on this behavior and cut through the BS—the people at the very top are doing it, too, in fact it's most of what they do—so it works, and so it keeps happening, on a larger and larger scale.

I agree with you, @asark But I would change "..strangled by responsibility avoidance..' Into US business business are forced into culture of 'plausible deniability'.

If you do not follow that culture, your business, if successful, will be virtually and very quickly devoured by lawyers or partisan politicians seeking their racketeering tax.

Both of those professions essentially became licensed racketeers in the Western world.

I would also build up on your premise, and say that it is not that China is advancing at incredible pace, it is that our own West Europe and US have been slowed down by the above internal nemeses.

Not to belittle your experience, but one of the key issues in an authoritarian state is that nobody is held to account.

So, if you’re a politician or a big businessman, you can say whatever you like. We have a 3 year plan to eradicate X. We will completely redevelop the entire southern sector of the city and everyone will be rich and happy. And we’ll do it in 2 years.

China does a lot and achieves a lot, but for example, each time you read something China related in the news, check how many times it says “China plans to....” or “Government announces plan to.....”