Re:Tesla and Panasonic freeze spending on $4.5B Gigafactory
by ShorsHammer on Thursday April 11, 2019 @07:47AM
(#19633293)
I find it hard to believe the most popular short around is actually good value to short much as I would with the most popular long.
It's just so often incorrect. Investing advice from mainstream sources isn't a good strategy.
Re:Tesla and Panasonic freeze spending on $4.5B Gigafactory
by jsight on Thursday April 11, 2019 @09:29AM
(#19634254)
That is a really good point and one that I haven't thought of much. I've always considered "most popular" company as a signal of overvaluation, though I've certainly never analyzed that rigorously.
But is there a similar correlation with "most popular short" and future success? Its definitely possible.
Re:Tesla and Panasonic freeze spending on $4.5B Gigafactory
by ShorsHammer on Thursday April 11, 2019 @11:27AM
(#19635536)
Fair point, I wouldn't say simply being contrarian is the solution. Shorts do great work and can profit immensely from finding the truth, as they should, but personally feel the financial media is a Dr. Frankenstein which creates it's own monsters. There's plenty of examples of "common knowledge" in the year before the Great Recession. All sorts of talking heads lined up to re-iterate the _truth_.
It is possible to short a viable company into bankruptcy and win from it, this is something that should be acknowledged.
Because the mainstream press is catching up to things that "the Shorts" have been seeing and saying for a long time.
It's a fact that Teslas are great cars. It's also a fact that the quality is just okay, that the market for $50k+ vehicles is limited, and that Tesla can't produce a $35k vehicle at a profit.
If people bought into the idea that you were getting a fully autonomous car that would drive itself around and make you money while you slept, for $35,000 before incentives...I'm not sure what to say. But it seems like many people did.