I mean if we're only looking at made up numbers anyway isn't the 3rd scenario preferable? Almost the same number of people died, but there was no 20 year long period where people were paying extortionate rates for a medicine, and it took 30 years before the diseases was effectively cured, as opposed to the 20 years it took before a government funded cure came along.

You might even argue that the money saved by not having a patent could be used to save even more lives.