In my experience friendly or not, people tend to be quite honest when vouching or generally asked an opinion on someone.
Referring a bad candidate (or an incompetent one) will damage your reputation/credibility, and most people don't want that.
Even worse, it's quite possible for discrimination to become a disincentive to recommending someone, just like incompetence would be. Someone who won't be well-received for personal reasons is effectively a "bad candidate" with the potential to damage the recommender's reputation. The result is that even a person who overcomes barriers to find network connections won't necessarily be able to draw on them effectively.
(A past-tense example to cut down on politics: a Liar's Poker trader wouldn't recommend a friend who couldn't sell, but they also wouldn't recommend a skilled trader who wasn't a friend. And if they had recommended a skilled friend who wasn't a white guy, they could have expected at least as negative a reaction as if they'd recommended a bad trader.)
I think it's more correct to say that "the state of nature is incredibly unfair, and our society does not perfectly mitigate this."
Why would I choose someone I don't know and who I don't know if I can trust when I know someone else who can do the same task, I trust them and are required.
It's not just whether people would choose friendly incompetence over reserved hard work, but whether the reserved hard worker is going to be a name anyone mentions when it's time to find a candidate.
Getting married to one country's politically struggling groups or disenfranchisement issues is playing a totally different game, and is a total waste of time for this game.
I do this in a lot of markets. Almost country by country when necessary. Work with someone that looks like money in that market. Go to the places they are. Don't masquerade your pride of being the front person of your company as 'progress' that society let you get that far just to inspire 4 year olds, unless that is honestly the game you are trying to play.
Although my own background and success would probably inspire people "that look like me", alongside the general distribution of wealth and status seekers
What's the meaning of this? That a person should avoid unnecessary 'progress' PR?
An alternative is to find the lean rising power and make yourself valuable to them.
Then just be honest about your lack of chances and stop preaching that ill-positioned people have a chance at all. (Not literally 'you', just the industry and society)
There is an even distribution of entrepreneurship across all levels of society, the survivorship bias leans toward the already wealthy and well-connected because they get to retry. Other people have to earn their initial capital for 10+ years, try once, earn again for the next 10+ years and get caught up with supporting some other life changing situation.
And I'm not just talking about the politically favored and protected groups. I'd say it applies even more so to groups that don't get that political support.