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A comment on U.S. Treasury Yield Curve Inverts for First Time Since 2007. Parent comment

Re:U.S. Treasury Yield Curve Inverts for First Time Since 2007 by defertoreptar on Friday March 22, 2019 @05:15PM (#19467047)
Apparently it has predicted the last seven recessions. People are using the expression "self-fulfilling prophecy."
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Re:U.S. Treasury Yield Curve Inverts for First Time Since 2007 by AnimalMuppet on Friday March 22, 2019 @05:45PM (#19467283)
It may have predicted ten out of the last seven recessions. That is, sometimes the yield curve inverts and the recession doesn't happen. So it's not quite a self-fulfilling prophesy - though it still may be a sometimes-self-fulfilling prophesy...
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Re:U.S. Treasury Yield Curve Inverts for First Time Since 2007 by dajohnson89 on Saturday March 23, 2019 @01:15AM (#19469157)
correct. we can't determine the usefulness of this statistic without a false positive rate.
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Re:U.S. Treasury Yield Curve Inverts for First Time Since 2007 by refurb on Friday March 22, 2019 @05:28PM (#19467153)
Exactly. Every one looks at the last 10 years of a bull market and says “recession is coming!”.

Many of these people are bidding on these same bonds. So does the inversion signal a coming recession or just the belief of a coming recession?

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