US refuses to ground Boeing 737 Max

Re:US refuses to ground Boeing 737 Max by kickopotomus on Wednesday March 13, 2019 @01:01PM (#19380763)

Yes, it is. The 737 NG (700 series, 800 series, etc) has a hull loss rate of 0.27 per million departures[0]. I am having difficulty finding the exact number of departures for the MAX but 737s average about 3-5 departures per day[1]. Only 350 MAXs have been delivered and the first one was delivered on May 6, 2017[2] (676 days ago). So even being generous and supposing that all 350 aircraft were delivered exactly on May 6, 2017 and that each plane made 5 flights daily, that would be a total of 1,183,000 flights. Therefore the MAX line has a best-case hull loss rate of 1.69 per million departures. I.e. the MAX generation has a hull loss rate 6.25 times that of the NG line.

[0]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boeing_737#Accidents_and_incid...

[1]: https://www.researchgate.net/publication/274782362_Character...

[2]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boeing_737_MAX

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Re:US refuses to ground Boeing 737 Max by buboard on Wednesday March 13, 2019 @01:03PM (#19380796)

the question is if this difference is statistically significant

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Re:US refuses to ground Boeing 737 Max by kickopotomus on Wednesday March 13, 2019 @05:56PM (#19384298)

You are taking a commercial flight. You have the choice between 2 different aircraft which are essentially identical but you are more than 50 times more likely to crash in one of them. Which do you take?

EDIT: I have learned that I was far too generous with the flight numbers. The MAX series has only logged ~150K flights. Therefore it's hull loss rate is roughly 13.33 per million making it almost 50 times more dangerous than the NG line.

Yes, the difference is statistically significant.

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