Re:US refuses to ground Boeing 737 Max
by kickopotomus on Wednesday March 13, 2019 @01:01PM
(#19380763)
Yes, it is. The 737 NG (700 series, 800 series, etc) has a hull loss rate of 0.27 per million departures[0]. I am having difficulty finding the exact number of departures for the MAX but 737s average about 3-5 departures per day[1]. Only 350 MAXs have been delivered and the first one was delivered on May 6, 2017[2] (676 days ago). So even being generous and supposing that all 350 aircraft were delivered exactly on May 6, 2017 and that each plane made 5 flights daily, that would be a total of 1,183,000 flights. Therefore the MAX line has a best-case hull loss rate of 1.69 per million departures. I.e. the MAX generation has a hull loss rate 6.25 times that of the NG line.
[0]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boeing_737#Accidents_and_incid...
[1]: https://www.researchgate.net/publication/274782362_Character...
the question is if this difference is statistically significant
Re:US refuses to ground Boeing 737 Max
by kickopotomus on Wednesday March 13, 2019 @05:56PM
(#19384298)
You are taking a commercial flight. You have the choice between 2 different aircraft which are essentially identical but you are more than 50 times more likely to crash in one of them. Which do you take?
EDIT: I have learned that I was far too generous with the flight numbers. The MAX series has only logged ~150K flights. Therefore it's hull loss rate is roughly 13.33 per million making it almost 50 times more dangerous than the NG line.
Yes, the difference is statistically significant.
Is it?