Another input I would add to your list is knowing what the day to day culture of the company is. If it's a total shit show and many many startups are, you might not even be able to last there a year which is the normal cliff before your options start vesting.
>"Only if you know 1 The Cap Table
Are candidates or regular employees ever privy to the cap table? I have asked about it many times when a recruiter has tried to sell me on the joys of options in lieu of pay. Even after accepting a job I have routinely been rebuffed on getting a response to inquiries about the cap table.
Early stage key hires are; after things get rolling though probably not so much.
Only if you know 1. The Cap Table 2. Your founders' and boards' predilections for exits 3. Potential future rounds 4. Where the market will go
When you don't know these, you can still create a probability distribution, but price will likely be zero because the inputs have to have massive brackets for potential values.