Re:Could 'Oumuamua be an icy fractal aggregate ejected from ...
by chr1 on Wednesday February 20, 2019 @03:51AM
(#19206583)
Maybe there is some process that makes the red ball to always go to the top, so the probability of finding it is larger than one to million.
In both cases you do not have enough information to make any conclusions.
Instead, consider the example with the urns. I think that's a lot more realistic and illustrates the problem.