Re:Could 'Oumuamua be an icy fractal aggregate ejected from ...
by ALittleLight on Tuesday February 19, 2019 @07:34PM
(#19204518)
The license plate example is a kind of nonsense magic example to just use the same things that the parent comment was talking about - you should also factor in to your analysis the absurdity of issuing an identical plate to every car, etc.
Instead, consider the example with the urns. I think that's a lot more realistic and illustrates the problem.
Re:Could 'Oumuamua be an icy fractal aggregate ejected from ...
by chr1 on Wednesday February 20, 2019 @03:51AM
(#19206583)
Maybe there is some process that makes the red ball to always go to the top, so the probability of finding it is larger than one to million.
In both cases you do not have enough information to make any conclusions.
I think this scenario is incoherent after thinking about it for a minute. You say "there is equal probability that either explanation is true" but you imply that you, the storyteller, know something about license plates. Probability is a description of incomplete knowledge, so whose knowledge are we talking about, yours or mine?
I see no reason (in my hypothetical ignorance) to exclude the possibility you know I will see "ARW 357" next even if all license plates are different.